Author: roymorgansocial

No New Year’s cheer for iron ore: analysts

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Original article by Timothy Moore
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 3-Dec-18

Data from Fastmarkets MB shows that the spot price for iron ore with 62 per cent iron content was trading at $US65.95 a tonne at the end of November, having peaked at a month-high of $US77.2/tonne on 9 November. Analysts from Liberum Capital are bearish about the outlook for iron ore, forecasting that falling Chinese steel mill profits will reduce demand for higher-grade ore. Liberum has also changed its recommendation on shares in Rio Tinto, BHP Group and Anglo American to "sell".

CORPORATES
FASTMARKETS MB, LIBERUM CAPITAL LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, WEALTH WITHIN PTY LTD

Don’t kill off mastheads, Nine warned

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich
The Australian – Page: 24 & 26 : 3-Dec-18

David Kirk anticipates further consolidation in Australia’s media sector following the merger between Nine Entertainment Company and Fairfax Media. Kirk, who was Fairfax’s CEO from 2005 to 2008, has urged Nine to retain the media group’s metropolitan mastheads, arguing that they are still a valuable asset. Kirk expects the merger to generate some cost synergies, although he questions its benefits in terms of revenue and profit margins. The newly-enlarged Nine is slated to commence trading on 10 December.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, BAILADOR TECHNOLOGY INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX BTI, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Turnbull’s bid to force early poll

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Original article by Andrew Clennell, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 3-Dec-18

The future of Liberal MP Craig Kelly remains uncertain, with former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull urging several members of the party’s moderates faction to reject his pre-selection. Kelly has threatened to resign from the Liberal Party and become an independent MP if he is disendorsed. Turnbull told New South Wales minister Matt Kean that he had reached agreement with Scott Morrison while in office that an election would be held on 2 March, three weeks before the state election. Turnbull also said an early federal election would boost the re-election prospects of the NSW government, allowing it to avoid an anti-Coalition backlash.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PREMIER AND CABINET

Melbourne leading holiday destination ahead of Sydney

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-18

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey has found that over 12 million Australians aged 14+ (59%) intend to visit a domestic holiday destination and stay at least one night on their next trip. Melbourne is again the leading holiday destination, with over 1.5 million Australians intending to stay for at least one night in the Victorian capital on their next trip. It is followed by Sydney (880,000) and Brisbane (over 570,000). Other popular domestic holiday destinations include the Great Ocean Road (522,000), the North Coast of New South Wales (521,000) and the Hunter Valley, Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Gloucester region (437,000). Analysis using Roy Morgan’s Helix Personas consumer segmentation and data integration tool shows that Aspirationals are more likely to choose Melbourne as a domestic holiday destination than other Helix Personas Communities whereas Australians in the Hearth & Home Community are more likely than other communities to choose Sydney, Brisbane and Perth.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Business Confidence up for third straight month to 113.8 in November

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-18

In Australia, Business Confidence rose 0.7pts (+0.6%) to 113.8 in November 2018, according to the latest Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence has continued a rebound which began following the Liberal leadership instability in late August. Business Confidence is now above where it was in July (113.6), prior to the leadership challenge, for the first time. Business Confidence so far during 2018 has averaged 115.6, the highest yearly average since 2014. Businesses are largely positive, with 51.1% (up 5.9ppts) expecting the business to be ‘better off financially’ this time next year and 51.8% (up 2.3ppts) expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says there is rising confidence across a broad number of industries compared to this time a year ago.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Big decline in usage of bank branches

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-18

A Roy Morgan Single Source shows that 4.73 million Australians aged 14+ used bank branches in an average four-week period in the six months to October 2018. This compares with 6.50 million for the same period in 2014 (down 27.2%). The survey also shows that 9.18 million Australians (44.7%) used mobile banking in an average four weeks in October 2018, compared with just 5.66 million (29.3%) in October 2014. Internet banking using a website remains the most popular banking channel at 47.1%, but it has declined from 52.3% in 2014 and on current trends looks like being surpassed by mobile banking within a year or two. Phone banking is also declining and is now down to 13.6%, from 16.1% in 2014. Meanwhile, bank branches still play an important role among older customers, with 38.1% of pre-boomers and 29.8% of baby boomers using them over an average four-week period. These are the only two generations where branches are still preferred to mobile banking. The Single Source survey is based on in-depth interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 consumers per annum in their homes.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Woolworths extends lead over Coles in seafood

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-18

Roy Morgan’s latest Supermarket & Fresh Food Currency Report shows that Woolworths has a 27.4% share of Australia’s fresh food market, ahead of Coles (24.6%) and Aldi (9.8%). In fresh seafood, which accounts for 7 per cent of the overall fresh food sector, stand-alone shops still have the largest market share in dollar terms. However, among supermarkets Woolworths has opened up a strong lead over rival Coles during the 12 months to September 2018. Woolworths also continues to hold the largest market share in dollar terms of fresh meat, fresh deli, fresh bread and fresh fruit and vegetables, although Coles has narrowed the market share gap in all those categories in the 12 months to September. The Supermarket & Fresh Food Currency Report is compiled from data collected as part of Roy Morgan’s Single Source survey, which involves more than 50,000 in-home, face-to-face interviews each year, including more than 12,000 detailed surveys of grocery and fresh food buying behaviour.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD

Discount Drug Stores takes the lead in satisfaction

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Dec-18

Discount Drug Stores has taken out Roy Morgan’s pharmacy customer satisfaction award for October 2018, with 91.4% of its customers reporting that they were ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ satisfied with their shopping experience in the chain’s stores. Its nearest competitor was Priceline Pharmacy, with a total satisfaction rating of 90.4%, followed by Amcal/Amcal Max with an overall satisfaction rating of 90%. Breaking down the satisfaction data by age, the group with the highest level of satisfaction with an individual pharmacy brand was the ‘pre-Baby Boomers’, 96% of whom were ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ satisfied with Soul Pattinson. Satisfaction scores use 12-month moving averages to smooth out data volatility, and are based on the Roy Morgan Single Source survey which involves more than 50,000 detailed face-to-face interviews a year with householders in their own homes, including 15,040 in the past year who rated their pharmacy experience.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, DISCOUNT DRUGSTORES PTY LTD, PRICELINE PHARMACY, AMCAL PTY LTD, AMCAL MAX, SOUL PATTINSON

Saltbush Club: Australia should COP-OUT of COP-24.

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By Viv Forbes,
Secretary of the Saltbush Club

The growing Saltbush Climate Lobby has called on PM Morrison to make no new commitments at the COP24 climate-fest to be held in Poland in a few days.

The Secretary of The Saltbush Club, Mr Viv Forbes, said that Australians no longer trusted what politicians and officials were doing behind closed doors far from home.

“Nothing of benefit to Australian consumers, tax payers or business will come out of COP24. It will just extend the UN’s war on our cheap, reliable hydro-carbon fuels and the backbone industries that rely on them – primary industries, transport, processing and manufacturing.

“It is effectively a ‘War on the West’.

“Australia is particularly vulnerable with no nuclear power, no geothermal power and limited hydropower. This war on reliable hydro-carbon fuels and the promotion of unreliable wind and solar power will increasingly deny our industries and consumers cheap reliable power.

“There is no justification for the War on carbon dioxide – there is no proof that CO2 drives global temperature and Earth’s climate cannot be tweaked by erecting windmills or putting taxes on carbon dioxide.

“COP24 will descend into a grab for cash, and Australia is one of those pullets they plan to pluck.”

fat-chicken

“Believing carbon dioxide is the planet’s climate control knob is pretty close to believing in magic.” – Dr. Richard Lindzen

Viv Forbes
forbes@saltbushclub.com
www.saltbushclub.com

Developing countries are gearing up for the big pay day, and china still defines itself as a developing country: http://sdg.iisd.org/news/basic-ministers-call-for-just-transition-new-finance-goal-ahead-of-katowice-climate-change-conference/

Manufacturing, mining to power capex rebound

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 30-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that capital expenditure in the private sector is now expected to top $114.1bn in 2018-19, compared with a previous forecast of $102bn. The mining and manufacturing sectors are tipped to be the key drivers of the upturn in capital expenditure. Meanwhile, the figures show that private sector capex fell by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter, primarily due to lower expenditure in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN SECURITIES AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TD SECURITIES, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED