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China visit sees $105 billion iron ore exports on the brink

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Original article by Jamie Seidel
News.com.au – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Australia to hold talks aimed at removing the remaining punitive tariffs on Australian exports. Wang is also expected to push for the easing of restrictions on Chinese investment in Australia, as well as support for China’s bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. However, the talks have coincided with China’s growing push to reduce its dependence on iron ore exports from Australia. BHP CEO Mike Henry recently warned that Chinese-backed producers’ growing dominance of the nickel market could be replicated in the iron ore sector.

CORPORATES
CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

Bullock backs Chalmers in RBA stoush with Coalition

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 20-Mar-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers wants the Coalition’s support for legislation to overhaul the Reserve Bank of Australia, as he does not want to negotiate with the Greens. The Coalition is concerned that Chalmers wants the RBA existing board members to be appointed to its new governance board so he can "stack" the interest rates-setting board with people who are aligned with Labor. RBA governor Michelle Bullock says she would like "continuity with respect to both boards", but adds that she has no firm views on just how many current board members should serve on each of the new boards.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

End of subsidy will risk power bill cut

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Sarah Ison
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 20-Mar-24

The Australian Energy Regulator’s proposed changes to the default market offer could reduce household power bills by up to 7.1 per cent in 2024-25. Businesses in turn could see their electricity costs fall by up to 10 per cent. However, the AER’s proposed changes to the default market offer will be offset by a likely big increase in electricity bills for many households if the federal government does not renew its commitment to the energy bill relief fund in 2024-25, which is jointly funded by the states. It has provided energy subsidies to people on low incomes and small businsses.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR

Axing the Olympics was never on cards

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Original article by Lydia Lynch
The Australian – Page: 7 : 20-Mar-24

The Queensland government has responded to media reports which claimed that it had sought advice on the potential costs associated with cancelling the 2032 Brisbane Olympic Games. A spokeswoman from the office of Premier Steven Miles has stated that the government has not sought advice about cancelling the Games and it has never had any intention of not proceeding with the event. The media reports alleged that the government had been advised that it would have to pay $500m in compensation if the Games were cancelled, while it would also lose $3.5bn worth of infrastructure funding from the federal government.

CORPORATES
QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET

Australian unemployment increases in February; but under-employment drops to lowest since September 2023

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

In February 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,436,000 (9.2% of the workforce) and an additional 1,501,000 (9.6%) were under-employed. In total, 2.94 million Australians (18.8%) were unemployed or under-employed in February. Although unemployment and under-employment remain high, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 711,000 to 14,228,000. This is the first month in which total employment has exceeded 14.2 million. Employment increased by 78,000 in February; full-time employment drove the increase (up 154,000 to a new record high of 9,359,000), while part-time employment dropped 76,000 to 4,869,000. The workforce in February was 15,664,000 (up 132,000 from January, and up 626,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for January, but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%. The February Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross-section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 81.7 in mid-March before final pre-Budget meeting of RBA

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 81.7 in the week to 17 March. However, the index has now spent a record 59 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is again 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (76.5), but 1.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1 ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA keeps rate rise in reserve

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Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 20-Mar-24

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday had been widely expected. However, the RBA appears to have adopted a more neutral monetary policy stance in the statement it released after the two-day board meeting. It stated that the board is "not ruling anything in or out" with regard to the next interest rate move; in contrast, the RBA stated in February that a further increase in interest rates "cannot be ruled out". Financial markets have now fully priced in a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate in September, as well as a strong chance of another rate cut in December.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Independents move to ban mega donations in far-reaching political transparency overhaul

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Original article by Paul Karp
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 19-Mar-24

Political donations of more than $1.5 million would be banned under the fair and transparent elections bill, which is being tabled by crossbench and independent MPs in both houses of federal parliament. The bill also calls for a ban on donations from socially harmful industries such as the fossil fuel sector and for ‘truth-in-political advertising’. It further calls for the donation disclosure threshold to be lowered to $1,000, but it does not support a recommendation from the electoral matters committee to cap spending on elections, due to concerns that this could effectively entrench the two major parties.

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Business in a tizz over Beijing minister lunch

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Original article by Will Glasgow, Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 5 : 19-Mar-24

The Chinese government and the Australia China Business Council have organised a last-minute lunch for Australian business leaders to meet with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday. Senior executives from mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto are expected to attend the lunch, while executives from Treasury Wine Estates and Graincorp have also been invited, but may not be able to attend due to the short notice. Commenting on the lunch, a source from one of the invited companies said that "everyone’s really nervous. No one wants to do anything that upsets things".

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS COUNCIL, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC

Federal voting intention unchanged in mid-March ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Mar-24

The latest Roy Morgan survey shows that support for the ALP is unchanged at 51.5%, ahead of the Coalition on 48.5% (also unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the Albanese Government would be re-elected, but forced into minority government with the support of minor parties and independents. Primary support for both major parties fell: support for the Coalition was down 1% to 37%, while support for the ALP was down 0.5% to 31.5%. Support for the Greens dropped 0.5% to 12.5%, One Nation support increased 1.5% to 5.5%, with the biggest increase in support in Queensland, up 2.5% to 8%. Support for Independents was unchanged at 9% and support for Other Parties was up 0.5% to 4.5%. The latest Roy Morgan survey is based on interviewing a representative cross-section of 1,710 Australian electors from March 11-17. Further details will be released in Roy Morgan’s weekly video update presented by CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY