O75 Public Administration

Door not shut on extending jobless aid: PM

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Patrick Commins
The Australian – Page: 2 : 12-May-20

JP Morgan expects about one million Australians to have lost their jobs in April, lifting the unemployment rate to 8.5 per cent. Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reiterated that at present the JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme is still slated to be in place for six months. He adds that it could be extended or scaled back, depending on the pace at which the economy and the labour market recover from the pandemic. Official labour market data for April will be released on 14 May.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

COVID to outlast support for IR reform

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Original article by Jennifer Hewett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 12-May-20

It is unlikely that the co-operation between employers, unions and the federal government during the COVID-19 crisis will last long enough to bring about much-needed change to Australia’s industrial relations system. Federal Labor has already shown indications along these lines with its push to disallow regulations that temporarily cut the negotiating period for changes to enterprise agreements. Although few would argue that the enterprise bargaining system was not already in crisis even before COVID-19, the federal government is yet to outline what it sees as necessary in terms of industrial relations reform.

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AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Two-year hangover from Covid

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Original article by Patrick Commins, Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 12-May-20

KPMG has warned that the Australian economy will not recover its losses from the coronavirus pandemic until the September 2021 quarter. The firm’s research suggests that industries such as healthcare, public administration and civil engineering will have fully rebounded by the end of 2020, but the hospitality, accommodation, and retailing and sectors will not recover until March 2022. KPMG’s forecasts are based on expectations that the easing of lockdown restrictions will not result in any major virus outbreaks.

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KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

‘Australians know there is no money tree’: Treasurer

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 12-May-20

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will use his economic statement on 12 May to stress that there must be a limit to the federal government’s stimulus and assistance schemes, and they must eventually be wound back. Treasury has estimated that the government’s three-stage strategy to re-open the economy by July will boost GDP by $9.4bn a month and generate 850,000 jobs. However, Frydenberg will emphasise that this is dependent on Australians continuing to observe social distancing and hygiene measures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Depression a $5bn hit to productivity

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-May-20

Sydney University’s Brain & Mind Centre has carried out modelling on the national wealth impacts of COVID-19. The Centre’s modelling indicates up to $5 billion in productivity could be lost as a result of an impending mental health crisis linked to mass unemployment. Centre director Ian Hickie says Australia’s mental ‘wealth’ was four per cent of GDP prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, and that Australia faces its biggest loss of that national wealth since the Great Depression if effective action is not taken as soon as possible.

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UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY. BRAIN AND MIND RESEARCH INSTITUTE

China cereal killer threat

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 11-May-20

China is threatening to impose tariffs of over 80 per cent on Australian barley, with the federal government given 10 days to argue why they should not be imposed. China’s threat comes after an 18-month investigation into allegations that Australia was dumping its barley in China. Farmers and grain grower groups have consistently maintained the investigation was politically motivated, while Australia has not ruled out the possibility of taking China to the World Trade Organisation over the dispute. The Chinese market was worth just under $600 million to Australian barley farmers in 2019.

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WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION

Recovery rapid but jobs must be saved

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Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 5 : 11-May-20

A new report from Deloitte Access Economics forecasts that the coronavirus pandemic will reduce national income by 10 per cent, which equates to nearly $200bn. The firm also expects income tax revenue to fall by $14bn in 2020 and $37bn in 2021, and warns that the unemployment rate may not return to five per cent until 2024. Deloitte also expects the Australian economy to recover from the pandemic more quickly than other countries. Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will release an economic statement on the coronavirus on 12 May.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

In April Business Confidence plunged to record low of 76.9 but starting to improve

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-May-20

In April 2020 Roy Morgan Business Confidence was down 18.2pts (-19.1%) to 76.9 – plunging to a second consecutive record monthly low. Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says "Business Confidence in April continued in a steep negative direction following when it began plunging in late March. The large drop followed the introduction of strict social distancing and self-isolation directives from the Federal and State Governments that persisted throughout the month of April. The good news is that Business Confidence bottomed in the first half of the month and has since improved. For the first half of April Business Confidence averaged only 69.3, similar to its rating for late March of 71.4. Since this low-point the index has improved and averaged 82.0 during the second half of April as Australia ‘flattened the curve’ of new COVID-19 infections."

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Early super releases pass the $10b mark

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Original article by Joanna Mather, Tom McIlroy, Michael Roddan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 8-May-20

The federal government has advised that 1.2 million people have now applied to withdraw a total of $10.2bn from their superannuation fund via its early access scheme. Treasury had forecast that about $27bn in total will be withdrawn by people who have experienced financial hardship due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Australian Federal Police have executed five search warrants as part of an investigation into allegations that fraudsters are taking advantage of the scheme. Tax Commissioner Chris Jordan has told a Senate inquiry that about $120,000 has been stolen from super funds by fraudsters.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Slow crawl out of Covid hole

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Original article by Simon Benson, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 8-May-20

The national cabinet meeting on 8 May will decide on a timeframe for relaxing the coronavirus lockdown. The restrictions are expected to be progressively eased over the next two months. Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry CEO James Pearson has called for restrictions to be lifted at the same time across all states and territories, arguing that maintaining ‘artificial barriers’ between jurisdictions will merely increase costs for businesses and make it harder for them to retain jobs. However, some states have signalled that they will follow their own timetable for easing restrictions.

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AUSTRALIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY