BANKS AND BANKING

Westpac’s Evans says no rate cut in sight

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 30-Oct-15

HSBC’s Paul Bloxham expects a reduction in Australia’s cash rate in either November or December 2015, in the wake of lower-than-expected inflation data in the September quarter. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans in turn still believes that the cash rate will remain unchanged in November, noting that the Reserve Bank has ignored one-off falls in the inflation rate in the past. Andrew Ticehurst of Nomura expects the cash rate to remain on hold until February.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Fed leaves rates on hold, preps for potential December lift

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Original article by
The Age – Page: Online : 29-Oct-15

The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting in late October 2015 has resulted in US interest rates being left unchanged. The central bank’s monetary policy statement noted that the US economy is expanding at a "moderate pace", while jobs growth has slowed. The statement omitted the previous month’s reference to the potential impact of global risks on the US economy. BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich says a rate cut remains possible in December.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF RICHMOND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC

RBA urged not to cut interest rate

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Oct-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s "shadow board" believes that the cash rate should either be left at two per cent for the next six months or increased. Shadow board member Mark Crosby says economic reforms such as tax cuts would do more to stimulate the economy than further rate cuts. He adds that more rate cuts may increase the debt problem in Australia. Crosby also says the growing expectation that rates will soon rise in the US should prompt the Reserve Bank to leave rates on hold.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY, UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

November RBA rate cut gains traction

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 5-Oct-15

Data from Bloomberg shows that financial markets believe there is a 27 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by 25 basis points on 6 October 2015. Economists have cited factors such as the recent fall in the value of the Australian dollar and an improvement in business confidence as some of the factors that will influence the central bank’s decision. Citigroup anticipates a rate cut in November.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

RBA needs to cut official interest rate to 1.5pc: ANZ

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 25-Sep-15

The ANZ Bank says Australia’s unemployment rate of 6.2 per cent is unlikely to fall significantly in the near-term due to factors such as slowing global economic growth and the uncertain outlook for the Chinese economy. Chief economist Warren Hogan warns that the unemployment rate could potentially rise over the next year or so. ANZ believes that a combination of factors means the Reserve Bank will have to reduce the cash rate in both February and May 2016.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Get used to lower growth, returns

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 18-Sep-15

UBS Global Asset Management’s Tracey McNaughton believes that the US Federal Reserve should raise the cash rate in September 2015, but warns that financial markets may experience further volatility in the near-term regardless of its decision. McNaughton also says Australian investors can expect to receive lower returns in the future and should no longer rely on the traditional "set and forget" investment strategy.

CORPORATES
UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP

Citi says 55pc chance of global recession

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 11-Sep-15

A new report from Citigroup’s chief economist Willem Buiter has raised the prospect of an emerging market-driven global recession. Buiter rates the chances of a global recession in the next two years at 55 per cent, warning that if the Chinese economy goes into recession it will have a flow-on effect on other emerging market economies. He adds that the limited scope for further interest rate cuts in developed economies may require central banks to consider more stimulus measures.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED

Fed urged to avoid panic with rate hike

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 10-Sep-15

The US Federal Reserve is not expected to lift the cash rate in September 2015, with financial markets pricing in a 28 per cent chance. Kaushik Basu, chief economist at the World Bank, has expressed concern that emerging markets in particular are likely to experience an increase in volatility if the US tightens monetary policy.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, WORLD BANK, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT

$A overshoots as iron ore export volumes up again

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 10-Sep-15

The Australian dollar is trading at around $US0.70, having recently fallen to $US0.6896. However, Annette Beacher of TD Securities argues that the rebound in the iron ore price means the currency should be trading at the $US0.76 level. Meanwhile, Beacher says the Reserve Bank is likely to maintain the cash rate at two per cent in the wake of the currency’s recent downturn.

CORPORATES
TD SECURITIES, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, GROUP OF TEN (G-10)

Global investors want Australian assets: HSBC

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 45 : 3-Sep-15

US, Canadian and European pension funds are seeking Australian commercial property because the long-term demographics look good, according to HSBC’s global head of corporate real estate, Andy Armstrong. Visiting from London, Armstrong says strong population growth, urban infrastructure renewal and a business-friendly environment make Australia a stand-out economy for real estate investment.

CORPORATES
HSBC BANK PLC, ERNST AND YOUNG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, HSBC BANK AUSTRALIA LIMITED