BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Investors shrug off weak outlook, virus threat

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 20-Feb-20

Pieter Stoltz of UBS notes that 28 per cent of Australia’s large-capitalisation stocks have exceeded their dividend expectations so far in the February reporting season. He says this may be due to factors such as demand for stable income or limited investment opportunities. Stoltz adds that 31 per cent of large companies have upgraded their earnings guidance, while just 19 per cent have downgraded their earnings guidance.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Home loans lift on property recovery

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 20 : 17-Feb-20

A report from Deloitte notes that there was a seven per cent decline in new mortgage settlements in 2019. However, the latest edition of its Australian Mortgage Report shows that lenders and brokers expect a 2-3 per cent increase in mortgage settlements in 2020. Heather Baister of Deloitte says mid-tier lenders such as Macquarie and Citibank could benefit the most from the expected upturn in settlements.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIBANK PTY LTD

From bad to worse for AMP: $2.5bn loss, $6.3bn outflows, more to come

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 14-Feb-20

Wealth manager AMP has posted a statutory loss of $2.5bn for the 2019 calendar year, while its underlying profit fell by 32 per cent to $464m. A $2.35bn impairment charge in the first half was the major contributor to the big loss. Meanwhile, AMP’s wealth division recorded net cash outflows of $6.3bn for the year, and CEO Francesco De Ferrari says outflows are likely to be high again in 2020. AMP has advised that its customer remediation program is expected to be completed in 2021.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

CSL keeps pumping up the profit

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 13-Feb-20

CSL has posted a 2019-20 interim net profit of $US1.248bn, which is eight per cent higher than previously. Sales rose by 8.4 per cent to $US4.7bn, with sales of its immunoglobulin products rising by 26 per cent to $US1.985bn. The biotechnology group expects its full-year profit to be within the range of $US2.1bn to $US2.17bn. CEO Paul Perreault says none of the company’s employees in Wuhan have been infected by the coronavirus and the company has not yet been impacted by the outbreak.

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL

BHP could pay out $3b extra cash for investors

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Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 12-Feb-20

Macquarie has forecast that BHP will report underlying earnings of $US12.52bn for the first half of 2019-20, which would be 14 per cent higher than previously. Macquarie also expects BHP to announce an interim dividend of $US0.76 per share, while the firm adds that there is potential for a special dividend of up to $US0.40 per share. BHP will release its interim results on 18 February.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

CBA under pressure to deliver perfect result

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Original article by James Frost, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 10-Feb-20

The consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg is for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia to post a 2019-20 interim cash profit of $4.34bn. This compares with $4.68bn for the first half of 2018-19. The bank’s share price has gained 10 per cent in the last three months, leaving the stock vulnerable to a pullback if investors are disappointed by the interim result. Most analysts do not expect CBA to announce a special dividend or a share buyback.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BLOOMBERG LP

IPO drought expected to continue into the new year

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 30-Jan-20

Research by HLB Mann Judd shows that 28 companies with a market capitalisation of less than $100m listed on the Australian sharemarket in 2019, compared with 72 in 2018. In total, just 62 companies debuted on the local bourse in 2019, collectively raising $6.91bn. The downturn in IPO activity has carried over into 2020, and HLB Mann Judd partner Nicholas Guest says many owners of high-growth businesses are likely to seek private equity backing rather than an IPO in the current environment.

CORPORATES
HLB MANN JUDD

Miners to bear the brunt of China woes

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 25 : 29-Jan-20

The coronavirus crisis has weighed on the shares of Australian resources groups that have exposure to China. Shares in Rio Tinto have closed below $100 for the first time since mid-December, while BHP, Fortescue Metals Group, OZ Minerals and Sandfire Resources also retreated on 28 January. The prices of iron ore and base metals have also fallen in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Macquarie notes that based on the SARS pandemic, base metal prices may take 3-5 months to recover from their recent losses.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL – ASX SFR, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Tourism’s $6.5bn pain: our worst summer ever

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Original article by Emily Ritchie, Lisa Allen
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Jan-20

Tourism Australia will launch a new domestic marketing campaign to bolster the local tourism industry in the wake of the bushfires crisis. Industry executives have estimated that the bushfires have cost the sector about $2bn to date; this takes into account factors such as lost revenue, cancelled bookings, and facilities that have been damaged or destroyed. It is also forecast that the impact of cancelled bookings by international tourists could potentially cost the economy an additional $4.5bn over the next 12 months.

CORPORATES
TOURISM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN TOURISM INDUSTRY COUNCIL

Henry sharpens BHP’s iron will

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 15 & 20 : 22-Jan-20

BHP still expects its 2019-20 iron ore production in the Pilbara to be within the range of 273 to 286 million tonnes, after reporting output of 137 million tonnes for the first half. This suggests that production in the second half could be up to 149 million tonnes. BHP received an average of $US78.30 per tonne for iron ore in the first half, which is 41 per cent higher than previously. Meanwhile, BHP has advised that production at its Mount Arthur coal mine in New South Wales was affected by the drought and bushfires during the first half.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP