BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Stars align for Packer as Ellerston swoops

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker, Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 18-Jul-17

Ellerston Capital has become a substantial shareholder in casino operator The Star Entertainment Group, after increasing its stake in mid-July. Crown Resorts’ major shareholder James Packer is a passive investor in Ellerston, with a 25 per cent stake. Ellerston’s move to increase its stake in The Star has prompted speculation of a potential consolidation in the gambling sector, particularly in the wake of Crown’s decision to focus on its Australian operations. Rohan Sundram of Citigroup recently noted the synergies arising from a merger between Crown and The Star.

CORPORATES
THE STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX SGR, ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, GENTING BERHAD, CONSOLIDATED PRESS HOLDINGS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ELLERSTON AUSTRALIAN SHARE FUND, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Active management still delivers: Ophir

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 20 : 14-Jul-17

Ophir Asset Management’s co-founders Andrew Mitchell and Steven Ng are upbeat about the outlook for active fund managers. They argue that the active investment style is more effective at picking stocks that offer good value, as passive managers tend to allocate capital to sectors based on a market’s weightings. Ophir’s Opportunities Fund has achieve a total return of 352.2 per cent since it was established, while the Ophir High Conviction Fund has returned 62.5 per cent since inception.

CORPORATES
OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, UNISUPER LIMITED, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 20 INDEX

Coking coal customers not ditching quarterly prices just yet

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 14-Jul-17

Australian-listed Whitehaven Coal expects the quarterly contract pricing system to account for 40 per cent of its semi-soft coking sales in the next three months, and MD Paul Flynn says this could eventually rise to 70-80 per cent. He has downplayed speculation that coal buyers could eventually shift to a spot pricing system, noting that Whitehaven’s customers show no signs of wanting to make such a move at present. Glencore also intends to retain the quarterly contract system.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, GLENCORE PLC, NIPPON STEEL AND SUMITOMO METAL CORPORATION, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED

Property price growth set to halve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 30 : 13-Jul-17

A new survey of property industry professionals shows that most expect a slowdown in residential property price growth in the next 12 months. The ANZ/Property Council of Australia index of house price growth expectations has fallen from 20.2 points to 4.3 points. The anticipated slowdown is particularly acute in Sydney, with house price growth expectations falling from 29.6 points to 1.7 points. The survey also shows that property professionals are bearish about the outlook for capital growth in the retail property sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, RAY WHITE GROUP, AVENTUS PROPERTY GROUP PTY LTD, QUINTESSENTIAL EQUITY PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Miner may cut iron ore guidance: UBS

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 11-Jul-17

UBS estimates that Rio Tinto’s Western Australian iron ore exports fell by nearly eight per cent month-on-month in June 2017, to 24.8 million tonnes. The firm also estimates that Rio Tinto’s iron ore export volumes for the first half of 2017 totalled 154 million tonnes, which puts it well below the full-year target of 330 to 340 million tonnes. As a result, UBS suggests that Rio Tinto may scale back its full-year guidance when its production results for the second quarter are released in mid-July.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, VALE SA

Iron ore dive hits revenue expectations

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 7-Jul-17

Australia’s revenue from resource and energy exports will peak at $A205bn in 2016-17, according to revised forecasts from the Department of Industry, Innovation & ­Science. This is 4.6 per cent lower than it had forecast earlier in 2017, and the new forecast takes into account a sharp fall in the iron ore price in recent months. The department is bearish about the outlook for the steel input, forecasting that the benchmark price will fall to $US48 per tonne in 2018 and $US47 in 2019. It also anticipates a fall in the price of coking coal.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

AusSuper optimistic on equity outlook

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Original article by Sally Patten
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 6-Jul-17

AustralianSuper has posted a return of 12.4 per cent for 2016-17, due to a strong performance by asset classes such as infrastructure, Australian shares and global shares. Chief investment officer Mark Delaney is upbeat about the outlook for sharemarkets in 2017-18, although he cautions that investors should expect lower returns than in 2016-17. He adds that share prices are unlikely to be significantly affected by the prospect of interest rate increases in countries such as the US.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD

BHP could spin off petroleum: analyst

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 6-Jul-17

Bernstein analyst Paul Gait says BHP Billiton could potentially divest its petroleum and potash assets under incoming chairman Ken MacKenzie. Several institutional investors support a proposal by activist hedge fund Elliott Management for BHP to spin off its US petroleum division. Gait suggests that MacKenzie may be more objective about BHP’s future strategy given his lack of experience in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, TRIBECA GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Fortescue tipped to hit export guidance

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 6-Jul-17

Fortescue Metals Group had forecast that it would export about 170 million tonnes of iron ore in 2016-17. Analysts expect its export volumes to be at the higher of its guidance, although its exports for the June quarter will need to be around 44 million tonnes. BHP Billiton’s iron ore shipments for the year are also expected to be at the higher end of its guidance. Meanwhile, Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners expects the iron ore price to retreat to around $US50 per tonne in the second half of 2017.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Virgin tips positive cash flow as Velocity slows

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 4-Jul-17

Virgin Australia released an update on its trading performance on 3 July 2017, two days prior to the launch of its new service to Hong Kong. Virgin Australia, which reported a net loss of $A69 million for the third quarter in May 2017, advised on 3 July that it will be "cash flow positive" for the full financial year. However, its forecast for EBIT growth of between two and three per cent for its Velocity frequent flyer program was down on previous forecasts.

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, VELOCITY FREQUENT FLYER PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN