BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Japan Post takes axe to Toll jobs

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 27-Apr-17

Toll Holdings has shed about 300 jobs at its head office so far in 2017, and the transport and logistics group has revealed plans to axe an additional 1,700 positions over the next year. Toll’s Australian division, which employs about 25,000 people, is expected to bear the brunt of the job cuts. Toll will implement a restructuring program after parent company Japan Post flagged a $US3.6bn ($A4.8bn) writedown of the business and advised that 2017 EBIT is likely to be well below expectations. Japan Post paid $A6.5bn for Toll in 2015.

CORPORATES
TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, JAPAN POST COMPANY LIMITED, ASCIANO LIMITED, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, LINFOX PTY LTD, KIRIN HOLDINGS COMPANY LIMITED, LION-DAIRY AND DRINKS PTY LTD

BHP puts US shale back on block

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 27-Apr-17

BHP Billiton has reduced its 2017 forecast for copper production to between 1.33 million and 1.36 million tonnes due to the impact of industrial action at the Escondida mine in Chile. Metallurgical coal output is also expected to be lower due to Cyclone Debbie in Queensland, while iron ore production guidance has been reduced to between 268 million and 272 million tonnes following inclement weather in Western Australia during the March quarter. Meanwhile, BHP has flagged plans to sell its Fayetteville shale gas fields in the US.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Amazon will eat your business, e-tail entrepreneur warns

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Original article by Michael Bailey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 24-Apr-17

Many Australian e-commerce retailers are likely to be tempted to join Amazon Marketplace when it becomes established. However, Caroline McCulloch is not one of them. McCulloch, who is the co-founder of Frankie4, a Brisbane-based footwear designer and e-commerce retailer, says the likely negatives of joining Amazon Marketplace outweigh the possible benefits.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, FRANKIE4 PTY LTD

Westpac’s Maxsted talks down need for capital

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 11-Apr-17

Westpac chairman Lindsay Maxsted is confident that recent measures aimed at curbing investor-only home loans will be sufficient and additional intervention by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority will not be necessary. Maxsted also believes that the nation’s banks will not need to undertake further equity raisings in order to comply with new capital requirements. He adds that Westpac has prudent lending practices and will not approve loan applications for customers who may be at risk of default.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

M&A seen as resilient to shocks

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 11-Apr-17

Data from Dealogic shows that $US11.9bn ($A15.9bn) worth of takeover bids for Australian companies were announced in the March 2017 quarter, which is 38 per cent lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, Deloitte has released a report which forecasts that global uncertainty will weigh upon mergers and acquisitions activity in 2017. However, the firm expects an upturn in M&A activity when the uncertainty abates. Timothy Mahapatra of Deloitte notes that deal-making is still a priority for many companies.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, ALINTA ENERGY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CHOW TAI FOOK ENTERPRISES LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Fairfax spikes on talk of takeover

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann, Stephen Brook
The Australian – Page: 21 : 30-Mar-17

Shares in Fairfax Media closed 2.8 per cent higher at $A1.095 on 29 March 2017, after reaching a six-year high of $A1.15. The stock has rallied on the strength of speculation that TPG Capital has been actively buying Fairfax shares and could launch a takeover bid. The private equity firm is believed to have held talks with other media groups regarding Fairfax assets in the event of a takeover play.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, TPG CAPITAL LP, DOMAIN.COM.AU, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, PLATINUM CAPITAL FUND, CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GILBERT AND TOBIN LAWYERS, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Laws not the only obstacle to mega-mergers

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 20-Mar-17

The Australian Government’s cross-media ownership reform bill is slated to be debated by the Senate on 20 Match 2017. However, even if the bill is passed by Parliament, it remains uncertain as to whether the reforms will result in large-scale mergers in the media sector. Aside from the fact that there may not be sufficient support among executives and shareholders for such deals, any mergers would be aimed primarily at competing with Google and Facebook for advertising revenue in the long-term, rather than rival media companies.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NOVA ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, MULTI CHANNEL NETWORK PTY LTD, SKY NEWS, APN NEWS AND MEDIA LIMITED – ASX APN, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Earnings the focus as Nine pledges to regain revenue share

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann
The Australian – Page: 21 : 24-Feb-17

Nine Entertainment Company has posted a 2016-17 interim loss of $A236.9m, after writing down the value of its TV assets by $A260m. Underlying net profit fell by four per cent to $A75m, and group revenue was five per cent lower at $A659.2m. The TV division’s revenue was also down five per cent, at $A578.2m. Nine CEO Hugh Marks is upbeat about the outlook for the second half, noting a rise in its TV ratings and indications of an improvement in the advertising market.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, WARNER BROS

Mixed views on dollar’s chance of hitting US80c

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 15-Feb-17

The Australian dollar rallied on 14 February 2017, benefiting from factors such as an upbeat business survey and a strong rise in the Chinese producer price index. The currency has reached a two-year high on a trade-weighted index basis, while it is within sight of the 2016 high of $US0.7835. However, the spot price of iron ore may not be sustainable at the current elevated level, while the gap between official interest rates in Australia and the US is likely to narrow as the Federal Reserve gears up to tighten monetary policy.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rio Tinto hit with more delay for Indo copper

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 6-Feb-17

Freeport-McMoran has advised that Rio Tinto’s share of production from the Grasberg copper and gold mine is unlikely to increase until at least 2023. Rio was slated to receive 40 per cent of the Indonesian mine’s output from 2021 under an agreement between the two companies, but Freeport has attributed the expected delay to factors such as a series of interruptions to production at the mine in the last several years. Meanwhile, Rio is forecast to post EBITDA of $US13bn and revenue of $US34.3bn for calendar 2016.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP