BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Bellamy’s vulnerable to takeover

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 23 : 13-Jan-17

Shares in infant formula group Bellamy’s Australia shed 18 per cent to close at $A4.40 on 12 January 2017. The stock fell 20 per cent in the previous session, after being in a trading halt since early December. There is growing speculation that the company could become a takeover target. Belinda Moore of Morgans Financial says it would be attractive to suitors, but notes that turning around its fortunes could take up to 18 months. Bellamy’s shareholder Jan Cameron has ruled out making a takeover bid, although she will continue to push for changes to its board of directors.

CORPORATES
BELLAMY’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX BAL, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLACK PRINCE PRIVATE FOUNDATION, FONTERRA CO-OPERATIVE GROUP LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, WILSON HTM LIMITED

Hopes for investor pay dirt look grim

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 10-Jan-17

The rebound in the price of iron ore and coking coal will boost the profits of mining companies in fiscal 2017. Anna Kassianos of Platypus Asset Management says investors should not expect a significant rise in dividends, arguing that some of the increased earnings are likely to be retained to invest in growth strategies and maintenance work that was deferred when commodities prices retreated. Bloomberg expects BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and South32 to be among the miners that increase their dividends.

CORPORATES
PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BLOOMBERG LP, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Mining, energy exports tipped to top $200b

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 9-Jan-17

The office of the chief economist, Mark Cully, has released a report which forecasts that Australia’s mining and energy exports will reach a record $A203.9bn in 2016-17. This compares with just $A157.1bn in the previous financial year. The prices of key commodities such as iron ore and coal have rallied since a previous report had forecast that the value of mining and energy exports would total $A163.4bn in 2016-17. However, Cully expects the average price of both commodities to fall in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mining deals set to rebound

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Original article by Matt Chambers, Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 16 : 6-Jan-17

Rising commodity prices are likely to prompt Australian mining companies to seek growth opportunities through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). In 2016, M&A activity was subdued, with total transactions worth only $A6.9 billion, compared with $A71.9 billion in the boom year of 2007.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ALCAN INCORPORATED, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RBC CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GENESEE AND WYOMING INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ORBIS GOLD LIMITED – ASX OBS, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, ALLEN AND OVERY, MMG LIMITED – ASX MMG

Festive joy for Myer, JB Hi-Fi

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 6-Jan-17

Australian retailers recorded solid sales during Christmas. Citi analysts have found that department store Myer and electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi performed particularly well. Wesfarmers’ Target and Harvey Norman used discounting to entice shoppers to their stores. In their 2016-17 profit estimates, Citi analysts are optimistic about Myer and pessimistic about OrotonGroup and Specialty Fashion.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOOD GUYS, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, SPECIALTY FASHION GROUP LIMITED – ASX SFH, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES

Gas crunch bites with price hikes

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 6-Jan-17

Manufacturers have raised concerns about imminent shortages in gas supply and their impact on prices. Mark Chellew, chairman of Manufacturing Australia, says a period of between mid-2017 and late 2018 will be particularly difficult. According to EnergyQuest, a supply shortfall will reach 172 petajoules in 2020 and 205 petajoules in 2025.

CORPORATES
MANUFACTURING AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, VICTORIA WOOL PROCESSORS, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

Pilbara property crash could be over

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Original article by Julie-anne Sprague
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 5-Jan-17

House prices in Western Australia’s Pilbara region are unlikely to continue to decline. Hedland Property Shop MD Jim Henneberry says a recent increase in sales turnover suggests that the local real estate market is about to rebound, after several years of dramatic falls. The median house price in South Hedland fell 70 per cent in just four years, from $A850,000 to $A250,000.

CORPORATES
HEDLEY PROPERTY SHOP, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Miners’ $8.3b revenue jump to lift profits

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 5-Jan-17

Australia’s biggest listed mining companies are believed to have recorded a rise of $US6 billion (($A8.3 billion)) in combined revenues because of higher commodity prices. Analysts expect BHP Billiton to announce in February 2017 that revenues for the six months to 31 December 2016 rose 20 per cent to $US19.1 billion. Rio Tinto is likely to buy back shares worth $US2 billion.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC

Foreign property interest to run strong

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 13 : 4-Jan-17

Foreign investors bought $A10 billion worth of Australian commercial property in 2016. Large transactions included the acquisition of Dexus’s Southgate complex in Melbourne by ARA Property Group. The $A578 million transaction was executed in August. JLL CEO Stephen Conry expects strong interest in Australian property among foreign buyers to continue in 2017.

CORPORATES
JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, ARA PROPERTY GROUP, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, INMARK PTY LTD, ASCENDAS PTE LTD, SINGBRIDGE GROUP, COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Why the gloom merchants got housing wrong

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 4-Jan-17

Property prices are still rising, despite predictions of a decline. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index for December 2016 shows that they rose 10.9 per cent in the five main capital cities in 2016. They increased eight per cent in 2015. Louis Christopher, of SQM Research, says house prices are rising because of factors such as low interest rates, population growth and inadequate supply.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, DOMAIN.COM.AU, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, MACRO ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD