BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Windfall for mining sector could hit $20b

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Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 1-Dec-16

Macquarie Group estimates that financial market analysts will need to increase their 2018 earnings forecasts for resources groups by around 200 per cent if commodity prices remain at around current levels. Macquarie’s Jason Todd notes that this equates to a profit boost of about $A20bn for the sector. He argues that many analysts have factored the rise in commodity prices into their forecasts for 2016-17, but many have neglected to upgrade their earnings forecasts beyond the current financial year.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Windfall for mining sector could hit $20b

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Original article by Jens Meyer
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 1-Dec-16

Macquarie Group estimates that financial market analysts will need to increase their 2018 earnings forecasts for resources groups by around 200 per cent if commodity prices remain at around current levels. Macquarie’s Jason Todd notes that this equates to a profit boost of about $A20bn for the sector. He argues that many analysts have factored the rise in commodity prices into their forecasts for 2016-17, but many have neglected to upgrade their earnings forecasts beyond the current financial year.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Bleak view of Fairfax prospects

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Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 21 : 29-Nov-16

Citi has a "sell" recommendation on Fairfax Media, and values the company at $A0.70 per share. In contrast, Citi values the Domain property listings business at $A0.80 per share. The firm estimates that Fairfax would incur total costs of about $A330m if it opted to discontinue its print newspapers to focus on its digital operations. However, Citi notes that Fairfax’s digital revenue fell by 4.5 per cent in the first half of 2015-16.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, DOMAIN.COM.AU, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CAR, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA

Goldman upbeat on local M&A activity

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 28-Nov-16

Data from Dealogic shows that $US98.54bn ($A132.44bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced in Australia so far in 2016. Olivia Brown and Marissa Freund of Goldman Sachs are bullish about the outlook for M&A deals, and forecast strong activity in sectors such as healthcare, technology and retail. Freund expects strong interest in local companies from suitors in Asia, North America and Europe. Brown anticipates that Chinese companies will continue to be attracted to sectors that have export potential, such as consumer products and healthcare.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSGRID PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, BORAL LIMITED – ASX BLD, HEADWATERS INCORPORATED, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, INTEROIL CORPORATION, PACIFIC BRANDS LIMITED, HANESBRANDS, UGL LIMITED – ASX UGL, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, BRISCOE GROUP LIMITED, LAZARD ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

BHP and Rio shareholders focus on debt

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 28-Nov-16

The rally in the price of iron ore and coal during 2016 has boosted the earnings of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, prompting speculation of capital management initiatives. However, Jason Kururangi of Aberdeen Asset Management argues that BHP should prioritise debt reduction and investment in new projects rather than returns to shareholders. Meanwhile, Jason Beddow of Argo Investments suggests that BHP and Rio should consider increasing returns to shareholders if commodity prices remain at a similar level in 12 months’ time.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOCIETE GENERALE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED

Fat margin retailers must fear Amazon

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 24-Nov-16

Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine says Australian retailers with high margins, a large market share and growing online sales will be most vulnerable if Amazon enters the domestic market. Levine, who has presented Roy Morgan’s latest "State of the Nation" report on the retail sector, adds that Aldi and other international grocery chains with physical stores are a greater risk to Coles and Woolworths in the near-term, as most people still do not buy groceries online. Likewise, the low margins of consumer electronics retailers such as JB Hi-Fi means they are less vulnerable to competition from Amazon.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, LIDL GMBH & CO KG, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED – ASX BBN, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, DAVID JONES LIMITED, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Spending, tax cuts to buoy firms with US exposure

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Original article by Damon Kitney, Andrew White, Eli Greenblat, Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 26 : 11-Nov-16

Australian-listed companies with a significant presence in the US do not expect the election of Donald Trump as president to have much impact on their business. Brambles CEO Tom Gorman is upbeat about the logistics group’s outlook, noting that its US customers are primarily in sectors that are not affected by political and economic cycles. Orora CEO Nigel Garrard says the packaging group is optimistic about the economic impact of Trump’s policies on corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

CORPORATES
BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, ORORA LIMITED – ASX ORA, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, EVANS AND PARTNERS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, BERINGER WINE ESTATES HOLDINGS INCORPORATED, DIAGEO PLC, NORTH STAR STEEL, PRATT INDUSTRIES (USA) INCORPORATED, OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC

BHP urges suppliers to join tax fight

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

BHP Billiton executive Mike Henry has warned that mining services firms would be adversely affected by the Western Australian National Party’s proposed increase in the state’s iron ore levy. He says the mining services sector should lobby against the policy, arguing that they will receive less work if the levy is increased from $A0.25 per tonne to $A5, while employment in the sector will fall. Henry also says there should be greater collaboration between resources groups and mining services firms.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ORICA LIMITED – ASX ORI

Seven earnings to fall up to 20pc

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Nov-16

Seven West Media chairman Kerry Stokes says broadcasting licence fees and government subsidies for TV production are more important issues than proposed reforms to cross-media ownership laws. Meanwhile, the 2016 AGM has been told that Seven’s underlying EBIT for 2016-17 could be up to 20 per cent lower than previously, as the advertising market remains subdued. Macquarie Group expects a two per cent decline in the TV advertising market in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Banks stare at low growth as pressures rise

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 19 : 9-Nov-16

The combined cash earnings of Australia’s four major banks fell by 2.5 per cent in 2015-6, to $A29.6bn. They recorded net interest income growth of 5.5 per cent, to $A60.3bn, but non-interest income was down 3.1 per cent at $A23.5bn. Michael Rowland of KPMG says the banks are facing a number of headwinds, including the prospect of lower growth in revenue and return on equity, growing competition and an increase in regulatory costs.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, ERNST AND YOUNG