BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Bank customers tipped to fix their mortgages

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Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 21-Oct-15

The fall in the two-year swap rate to just 1.9 per cent has prompted some smaller financial institutions to reduce their fixed mortgage interest rates in recent weeks. ME Bank’s John Caelli says the downturn in the swap rate may be due to renewed speculation about the timing of monetary policy changes in Australia and the US. Jessica Darnbrough of Mortgage Choice says more home loan borrowers may opt for a fixed interest rate in the wake of Westpac’s move to lift its variable rates.

CORPORATES
ME BANK, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, BANK OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NEWCASTLE PERMANENT BUILDING SOCIETY LIMITED, HERITAGE BANK LIMITED – ASX HBS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

BHP’s London listing under fire

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 20-Oct-15

Nikko Asset Management’s head of Australian equities, Brad Potter, says it is no longer necessary for BHP Billiton to be listed on both the Australian and UK sharemarkets. He argues that rather than reducing BHP’s cost of capital, the dual listing has in fact increased it. Potter also believes that BHP’s progressive dividend policy is unsustainable. He adds that BHP may reconsider the dual listing if shareholders reject a proposal to make a payment to its London-listed company to finance a dividend for British shareholders.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE

Total, Petronas on lookout for local bargains

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 19-Oct-15

France-based Total’s investments in Australia include stakes in the Gladstone and Ichthys LNG projects. Australian MD Petter Undem says Total is interested in acquisitions in the local oil and gas sector, including a desire to become the operator of an LNG project rather than just a minority stakeholder. Malaysia-based Petronas – which also has a stake in the Gladstone project – has indicated that it too is keen to pursue acquisitions in Australia.

CORPORATES
TOTAL SA, TOTAL E&P AUSTRALIA, PETROLIAM NASIONAL BERHAD, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, INPEX CORPORATION, ICHTHYS LNG PTY LTD, INTEROIL CORPORATION, CENTRAL PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX CTP, PROGRESS ENERGY INCORPORATED

Small miners close to default: RBA

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Original article by Geoff Winestock, Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 19-Oct-15

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest Financial Stability Review warns that many smaller resources groups are close to defaulting on debt repayments. The central bank says the number of such companies that are at risk of default has reached its highest level since the global financial crisis. Few junior miners have collapsed in 2015, although the outlook for some is uncertain, and several mining services firms have been placed in administration.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MIRABELA NICKEL LIMITED – ASX MBN, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX EHL, TERMITE RESOURCES NL, WESTERN DESERT RESOURCES LIMITED, PLUTON RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX PLV, BANDANNA ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BND, WDS LIMITED – ASX WDS, BIG RIM PTY LTD, SARGENT, HEAVY HAULAGE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

CSL launches $1b share buyback

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Original article by Tim Binsted
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 16-Oct-15

Australian-listed CSL forecasts that its Seqirus influenza division will post revenue of $US450m and a break-even profit in 2015-16, before making a profit in 2017-18. Seqirus has been established by merging the BioCSL division with the recently acquired flu vaccines arm of Novartis. Meanwhile, CSL will repurchase some $A1bn of its shares over the next year. It will be the group’s ninth buyback in the last decade.

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, BIOCSL, SEQIRUS, NOVARTIS AG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Small lenders likely to follow majors up

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Original article by Shaun Drummond
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 16-Oct-15

Australia’s other three major banks have not yet increased their home loan interest rates in response to Westpac’s move. Bendigo & Adelaide Bank CEO Mike Hirst has indicated that the regional bank may increase its mortgage rates if the other "big three" do so, while Suncorp Bank, CUA and Firstmac may do so as well. Suncorp reduced its interest rates on some home loans on the same day that Westpac announced its rate increase.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, SUNCORP BANK, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, CREDIT UNION AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FIRSTMAC LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Analysts wary of Woodside Petroleum hiking Oil Search offer price

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 16-Oct-15

Woodside Petroleum’s revenue rose by 21 per cent to $US1.09bn ($A1.5bn) in the September 2015 quarter, although it fell by 44.6 per cent year-on-year due to the impact of the lower crude oil price. Production was 26 per cent higher than the June quarter, at 25.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. Meanwhile, some analysts have downplayed the potential for Woodside to increase its takeover offer for Oil Search.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GMP SECURITIES LP, CHEVRON CORPORATION

BHP may be tempted by ailing mining assets

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 14-Oct-15

Todd Warren of Colonial First State Global Asset Management says BHP Billiton seems to be becoming more keen to pursue mergers and acquisitions. A number of rival mining groups are believed to be considering asset sales, which could present buying opportunities for BHP. It already holds a 33.75 per cent stake in Glencore’s Antamina copper mine in Peru, which is one of the assets that Glencore may divest. BHP was among the bidders for Barrick Gold Corporation’s Zaldivar copper mine in Chile.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, GLENCORE PLC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ANTOFAGASTA PLC, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, BP PLC, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, TECK CORPORATION, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED

Gyngell may be switching channels

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Original article by Elizabeth Knight
The Age – Page: 21 : 13-Oct-15

The contract of Nine Entertainment Company CEO David Gyngell expires in November 2016. He is required to give 12 months’ notice if he does not want to renew the contract, and is widely tipped to do so. Nine has been restructured under Gyngell, selling assets and expanding into the subscription video-on-demand sector. Should the Australian Government implement changes to cross-media ownership laws, his last major deal at Nine could potentially be the acquisition of a regional affiliate or a non-TV media asset.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NINE LIVE PTY LTD, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR

Woolworths ‘treasure chest’ ready to open

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Original article by Catie Low
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 9-Oct-15

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst David Errington estimates that Woolworths could unlock about $A3bn worth of capital by streamlining its operations. He argues that Woolworths should focus on its core food and liquor business, while retaining its gaming division and offloading Big W and exiting the loss-making Masters hardware joint venture. The Masters business in particular may come under scrutiny when Woolworths completes its board renewal process.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, LOWE’S COMPANIES INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, TESCO PLC, KELLOGG COMPANY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA