BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Gorgon’s first LNG cargo faces delay

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 3-Aug-15

US-based Chevron has advised that the Gorgon LNG project may not commence shipments until early 2016. Production was initially slated to begin in the September 2014 quarter, but this was subsequently pushed back to late 2015 due to delays and a cost blowout. Chevron executive Jay Johnson says unforeseeable events such as inclement weather could further delay the $US54bn project, which also faces the threat of strike action over enterprise agreement negotiations.

CORPORATES
CHEVRON CORPORATION, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN MANUFACTURING WORKERS’ UNION, AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, CB&I INCORPORATED

Mobile banking tipped to wipe 600 branches

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 3-Aug-15

A UBS report forecasts that the growing shift to the use of mobile banking services will result in a 5.6 per cent reduction in the number of bank branches globally. Australian bank executives who participated in the UBS survey expect local bank branch numbers to be slashed by 11 per cent in coming years, which would equate to 603 branches. The survey also forecasts that the proportion of banking transactions carried out using mobile technology will rise from 25 per cent to 46 per cent in the next three years.

CORPORATES
UBS AG, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, NAB VENTURES

Miners pin hopes on gold-led resurgence

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 3-Aug-15

Mergers and acquisitions activity in the global mining sector topped $A4.2trn in 2014, according to data from Dealogic. In contrast, there were just $A77.6bn worth of deals involving Australian mining companies and assets. However, a number of recent deals in the local gold mining sector has boosted optimism about the outlook for M&A activity, particularly in the gold industry. Hayden Bairstow of Macquarie Group expects M&A to be a hot topic during the upcoming Diggers & Dealers conference.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, DIGGERS AND DEALERS FORUM, NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, NEWMONT MINING CORPORATION, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, ROMARCO MINERALS INCORPORATED, ANTOFAGASTA PLC, METALS X LIMITED – ASX MLX, RNI NL – ASX RNI, PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX PAN, TANAMI GOLD NL – ASX TAM, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD, PCF CAPITAL GROUP PTY LTD, LION SELECTION GROUP LIMITED – ASX LSX, DORAY MINERALS LIMITED – ASX DRM, MUTINY GOLD LIMITED, ERNST AND YOUNG

Navitas flat forecast has shareholders nervous

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 28-Jul-15

Listed education provider Navitas has posted a 2014-15 after-tax net profit of $A71.8m, which is 39 per cent higher than previously. CEO Rod Jones concedes that investors may have expected a higher profit, but describes it as "reasonable". EBITDA rose by 13 per cent to $A163.1, while revenue was 12 per cent higher at $A980.3m. Jones has advised that the group’s 2015-16 profit will be similar to its latest result.

CORPORATES
NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, STUDY OVERSEAS NOW PTY LTD, NAVITAS RESOURCES INSTITUTE, SYDNEY INSTITUTE OF BUSINESS AND TECHNOLOGY

Rinehart lieutenant bullish on ore, flags Roy Hill delays

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 27-Jul-15

Iron ore was trading at $US51 per tonne on 24 July 2015, but Hancock Prospecting executive director Tad Watroba expects it to rebound to $US80, due to factors such as continued strong demand from China. Meanwhile, Watroba has indicated that factors such as inclement weather and safety concerns will delay the start of production at the Roy Hill iron ore project until early October. Production had been initially slated to commence in September.

CORPORATES
HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CHINA IRON AND STEEL INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, POSCO, MARUBENI CORPORATION, CHINA STEEL CORPORATION, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Australia may miss out on global M&A frenzy

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 24-Jul-15

Some $US2.28trn ($A3.09trn) worth of global mergers and acquisitions were announced during the first half of 2015, according to data from Dealogic. This includes 31 deals worth at least $US10bn. However, M&A activity in Australia has totalled just $US56.9bn so far in 2015, and David Friedlander of law firm King & Wood Mallesons describes the level of local activity as "disappointing". Grant Chamberlain of Bank of America Merrill Lynch says five local deals worth at least $A5bn were announced during the first half.

CORPORATES
KING AND WOOD MALLESONS, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, FEDERATION CENTRES – ASX FDC, NOVION PROPERTY GROUP, BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, GREENHILL AND COMPANY, GRESHAM PARTNERS LIMITED

Chinese investment in property tipped to surge

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 22-Jul-15

The Chinese Government’s decision to make the nation’s sharemarket more accessible to international investors has prompted a rally in Shanghai Composite Index over the last year. However, some economists expect the relaxation of rules governing capital outflows from China to have a bigger impact in the long-term. Stephen Halmarick of Colonial First State Global Asset Management expects this to include a big rise in Chinese investment in Australia’s property market.

CORPORATES
COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF SUPERANNUATION TRUSTEES, SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX, CHINA. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS, MACQUARIE ASSET MANAGEMENT

Upbeat run-in to reporting season puts 6000 target back on radar

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Original article by Rose Powell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 22-Jul-15

Just 16 Australian-listed companies have issued earnings downgrades in the lead-up to the August 2015 profit-reporting season. Nader Naeimi of AMP says there is potential for the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index to reach the 6,000-point level during the reporting season, although he doubts that it will rise much further. Meanwhile, Credit Suisse has scaled back its end-of-year forecast for the S&P/ASX 200 from 6,500 to 6,000 points.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, AFFINITY EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED – ASX AFJ, FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN

Dairy industry faces tough year

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 21-Jul-15

The global price of whole milk powder fell by 13.1 per cent to $US1,848 per tonne in early July 2015. The downturn has prompted industry body Australian Dairy Farmers to warn that local dairy farmers may struggle to break even in 2015-16. The majority of milk processors have indicated that they will initially pay dairy farmers $A5.60 per kilogram of milksolids, which is just above the cost of production for many farmers.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN DAIRY FARMERS’ LIMITED, FONTERRA CO-OPERATIVE GROUP LIMITED

Rio sticks to strategy amid weather woes

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 17-Jul-15

Rio Tinto expects to export 340 million tonnes of iron ore in 2015, compared with previous expectations of 350 million tonnes. Rio has attributed the downgrade to the impact of adverse weather events during the first half of the calendar year, which disrupted production and reduced port capacity. Citigroup estimates that Rio will have to increase its iron ore shipments and fall back on stockpiles to achieve its revised full-year export target. The group’s shares closed 0.3 per cent higher at $A53.31 on 16 July.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP