BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Primary Health scare on profit slump

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 17-Jul-15

Shares in Primary Health Care fell by $A0.42 to $A4.77 on 16 July 2015, after the group advised that its 2014-15 EBITDA will around $A400m, which is similar to the previous year. Primary had previously forecast that its EBITDA would be within the range of $A410m to $A425m. Primary has also indicated that it now expects a tax refund of about $A50m, compared with earlier expectations of $A130m.

CORPORATES
PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

BHP, Rio investors not tempted by rising yield

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 14-Jul-15

The share prices of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have fallen sharply in the last 12 months, although they continue to offer strong dividend yields. However, institutional investors such as the Australian Foundation Investment Company and Argo Investments are not capitalising on the rising yield to increase their shareholdings. Michelle Lopez of Aberdeen Asset Management says a key issue for investors is whether BHP can sustain its progressive dividend policy.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

LNG price pain to be laid bare

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 14-Jul-15

Nik Burns of UBS expects Woodside Petroleum’s revenue for the June 2015 quarter to be 36 per cent lower than the March quarter. Meanwhile, revenue at Oil Search is tipped to be 35 per cent lower, as the downturn in the crude oil price begins to impact on LNG producers. Meanwhile, Adrian Prendergast of Morgans Financial expects Woodside’s dividend yield to fall from seven per cent to 3.2 per cent.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, APACHE CORPORATION, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, PLATTS

Professional indemnity premiums likely to rise

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Original article by Ruth Liew
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 13-Jul-15

The cost of professional indemnity insurance for Australian small and medium businesses fell by 18 per cent in 2013-14, according to BizCover. Factors such as strong competition in the sector and excess insurance capacity also resulted in premiums falling by an additional two per cent in 2014-15. However, experts note the growing trend for mergers and acquisitions in the global insurance sector, which may put upward pressure on premiums.

CORPORATES
BIZCOVER PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, ACE INSURANCE COMPANY, CHUBB CORPORATION, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, XL GROUP, CATLIN GROUP, BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Sydney Airport passenger growth predicted to lag

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 10-Jul-15

Moody’s says Brisbane and Melbourne airports are best placed to benefit from stronger international growth, while the international passenger growth rate at Sydney has fallen behind forecasts. It remains Australia’s main international gateway, but Melbourne and Brisbane are experiencing better growth rates because of new services to those airports. Moody’s says airports with a greater reliance on domestic travellers, such as Perth and Adelaide, face a more challenging outlook in passenger volume trends.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, BRISBANE AIRPORT CORPORATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC AIRPORTS (MELBOURNE) PTY LTD, ADELAIDE AIRPORT LIMITED, WESTRALIA AIRPORTS CORPORATION PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AIR CANADA

BHP and Rio braced and ready for iron ore’s ‘new normal’

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Original article by Amanda Saunders, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 10-Jul-15

Some analysts believe that the iron ore price could fall below $US40 per tonne as production ramps up in Australia and abroad. The price of the steel input fell below $US45/tonne on 8 July 2015, prompting speculation about the viability of some high-cost smaller iron ore miners. Andrew Harding, the head of Rio Tinto’s iron ore division, remains upbeat about the long-term outlook for the commodity. He says iron ore is now trading at around its long-term average, and argues that record high prices were not sustainable.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BC IRON LIMITED – ASX BCI, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES INCORPORATED, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, VALE SA, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD

Mine closures forecast as iron ore prices plunge

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Original article by Amanda Saunders, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 9-Jul-15

Katana Asset Management’s Romano Sala Tenna expects a number of Australian iron ore mines to cease production in the next 12 months. He says some of the cost reduction strategies utilised in the last year are unsustainable, and also notes the dearth of capital investment in many iron ore mines. Pengana Capital’s Tim Schroeders also has doubts as to whether cost-cutting measures can be sustained in the long-term. The iron ore price has fallen below $US50 per tonne, which may put further pressure on smaller producers.

CORPORATES
KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, PENGANA CAPITAL LIMITED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Crown faces earnings fall after Macau weakness

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 8-Jul-15

Australian-listed Crown Resorts’ casino joint venture in Macau recorded a 36.2 per cent decline in gross gaming revenue in June 2015, with revenue falling for the last 13 months. However, the group’s casino in Melbourne is performing well. Deutsche Bank has reduced its 2014-15 earnings forecast for Crown Resorts from $A512.1m to $A481.2m.

CORPORATES
CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, MELCO CROWN ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED, CROWN MELBOURNE LIMITED, CROWNBET, BETEASY PTY LTD, ASPINALL’S CLUB LIMITED, BETFAIR AUSTRALASIA PTY LTD, BETFAIR AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, ECHO ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX EGP

Oz Minerals poised to pounce: Citi

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 7-Jul-15

Citigroup has identified a number of Australian-listed mining groups that could potentially pursue acquisitions in the near-term. They include OZ Minerals, Independence Group, Iluka Resources, Mount Gibson Iron and South32. Citigroup also believes that there is the potential for South32 to become a takeover target, along with Sandfire Resources, Whitehaven Coal, Western Areas, Iluka Resources and Regis Resources.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU, MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED – ASX MGX, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL – ASX SFR, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, WESTERN AREAS LIMITED – ASX WSA, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, LA MANCHA RESOURCES INCORPORATED, KENMARE RESOURCES PLC, X2 RESOURCES PARTNERS LP, GLENCORE PLC, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, NORTH LIMITED, ALCAN INCORPORATED, RIVERSDALE MINING LIMITED

Strong start to year buoys optimism

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 6-Jul-15

Data from IRESS shows that equity trading volumes on the Australian Securities Exchange and Chi-X Australia have totalled around $A1.5bn so far in 2015. This compares with about $A1.2bn for the same period in 2014. Bruce Rolph of Citigroup expects trading volumes to remain strong in the second half of the calendar year, citing factors such as the potential for greater mergers and acquisitions activity and the August reporting season.

CORPORATES
IRESS LIMITED – ASX IRE, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, CHI-X AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GREENSTONE LIMITED, IVE GROUP LIMITED, CARTER HOLT HARVEY LIMITED