BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

South32 faces first asset impairment

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 10-Jun-15

Australian-listed South32 is reviewing the valuation its 60 per cent stake in the Samancor manganese joint venture, prompting speculation of a potential asset write-down. Deutsche Bank has estimated that South32’s manganese operations will account for 11 per cent of the BHP Billiton spin-off’s EBITDA for fiscal 2016. South32 shares closed $A0.05 lower at $A2.09 on 9 June 2015.

CORPORATES
SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Networks rely on sports for ad dollars

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 10-Jun-15

Concerns about an uncertain outlook for the advertising market prompted investors to sell down Australian media stocks on 9 June 2015. Nine Entertainment Company has partially attributed an earnings downgrade to slowing ad revenue. Ben Willee of Spinach Advertising notes that TV ad revenue is being affected by the growing use of mobile devices to access media content, while Starcom MediaVest Group CEO Chris Nolan says sports broadcasts are becoming a key source of viewers and ad revenue for TV networks.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SPINACH ADVERTISING PTY LTD, STARCOM MEDIAVEST GROUP, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, OPTIMUM MEDIA DIRECTION PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD

Shareholder backs Nine despite downgrade

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 9-Jun-15

Nine Entertainment Company has attributed a profit downgrade to a subdued TV advertising market in the second half of 2014-15. The media group has advised that its full-year EBITDA will be within the range of $A285m to $A290m, compared with earlier guidance of $A311m. Entcho Raykovski of Deutsche Bank expects free-to-air ad revenue to be three per cent lower in the second half.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WARNER BROS

Metcash is crunched in retail wars

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 5-Jun-15

Australian-listed Metcash has indicated that its financial accounts for 2014-15 will include asset write-downs totalling $A640m. The grocery group has also advised that dividends will be put on hold for 18 months. The revelations prompted a sharp fall in Metcash’s share price, which finished $A0.245 lower at $A1.14 on 4 June 2015. Metcash expects its full-year underlying EBIT to be within its forecast range of $A315m to $A330m.

CORPORATES
METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, INDEPENDENT GROCERS OF AUSTRALIA, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, COSTCO WHOLESALE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NIKKO ASSET MANAGEMENT GROUP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOD AND GROCERY COUNCIL, McPHERSON’S LIMITED – ASX MCP

Ainsworth looks to lift its international game

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 5-Jun-15

Ainsworth Game Technology has advised that its 2014-15 after-tax net profit will be line with the previous financial year. The listed gaming machine maker expects revenue to be two per cent lower at about $A240m, citing disappointing sales in Australia during the second half. CEO Danny Gladstone says the group will focus on expanding its international business, noting that there is limited opportunity for growth in the Australian market.

CORPORATES
AINSWORTH GAME TECHNOLOGY LIMITED – ASX AGI, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL

Retailer profits under pressure

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 4-Jun-15

UBS and the Australian Food & Grocery Council have produced a report which shows that supermarket groups’ profit margins have increased at the expense of suppliers over the last five years. However, the report concludes that rising competition in the grocery sector is set to shift the balance in favour of suppliers. Woolworths boasts a margin of eight per cent, which is sigificantly higher than the global average.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN FOOD AND GROCERY COUNCIL, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Battle for eyeballs to play out ‘within 12 months’

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 4-Jun-15

FetchTV CEO Scott Lorson estimates that up to five million Australian households could potentially take out a subscription to a streaming video service. He does not expect any of the rival groups to be able to operate at a loss for very long, and forecasts that they will succeed or fail within the next year. However, other media industry experts say the emerging sector is a long-term proposition.

CORPORATES
FETCHTV PTY LTD, QUICKFLIX LIMITED – ASX QFX, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED

Default fund choice aired

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Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 4-Jun-15

The financial system inquiry concluded that Australian superannuation fees are too high, costing members about $A20bn a year. Inquiry chairman David Murray has told a conference of the need for increased competition in the sector in order to reduce fees, while Assistant Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has flagged possible changes to the default super fund regime to boost competition. However, industry and retail super fund executives disagree on whether such reforms will result in lower fees.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED, INDUSTRY FUND SERVICES PTY LTD, RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD, GRATTAN INSTITUTE, COMMITTEE FOR SUSTAINABLE RETIREMENT INCOMES, ERNST AND YOUNG, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS

Hepatitis A recall takes bite from Patties profit

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 4-Jun-15

Patties Foods has advised that it is likely to post a 2014-15 net profit of $A15m, down from $A16.7m previously. Earnings for the current year are expected to be reduced by about $A1.5m due to a frozen berries product recall arising from a hepatitis A scare. CEO Steven Chaur says the group now subjects its berries to a stringent testing regime.

CORPORATES
PATTIES FOODS LIMITED – ASX PFL, NANNA’S, CREATIVE GOURMET, FOUR ‘N TWENTY PIES

Virtus shares drop 20pc on profit downgrade

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Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 3-Jun-15

Australian-listed IVF group Virtus Health has slightly downgraded its net profit forecast for 2014-15. The group indicated in February 2015 that its market share was 45.6 per cent, but it advised on 2 June that bulk-billing providers in New South Wales have eroded its market share. Virtus shares closed 19.92 per cent lower at $A6.11.

CORPORATES
VIRTUS HEALTH LIMITED – ASX VRT, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD