BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Markets drive Macquarie to bumper $1.5bn

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 : 20-Jan-15

Investment banking firm Macquarie Group has again raised its 2014-15 profit forecast, for the second time in half a year, and now expects a result of up to $A1.52bn that would be close to an all-time high. The increase by between 10% and 20% is based on an improved trading environment as well as the decline in the Australian dollar foreign exchange rate. Experts note that Macquarie’s fixed-income, currencies and commodities operations perform better in times of heightened volatility. On 19 January 2015 the stock closed 5.4% higher at $A58.25

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, BELL FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX BFG, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD

Woodside flags cuts, write-downs

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 20 : 16-Jan-15

Woodside Petroleum has reported total sales of $US1.76bn for the final three months of 2014, while sales for the full year were 22.5 per cent higher at $US7.08bn. The oil and gas producer has warned of the potential for asset write-downs of between $US250m and $US400m as a result of the decline in the crude oil price. Woodside also expects to scale back its capital expenditure in 2015. Its shares closed 1.35 per cent lower at $A35.06 on 15 January

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MITSUI AND COMPANY LIMITED, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PAVILION ENERGY PTE LTD, TEMASEK HOLDINGS (PTE) LTD, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, APACHE CORPORATION

Chinese buyers eyeing food, dairy, says UBS

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Anthony Macdonald
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 18 : 14-Jan-15

David Chin of UBS expects Chinese companies to become more active in acquiring assets in Australia’s agribusiness sector. Chin notes that the issue of food security is becoming increasingly important in China, which is likely to prompt greater interest in Australia’s food and dairy products sectors, as well as rural properties. Chin also expects Chinese groups to be interested in the privatisation of Queensland and New South Wales electricity assets

CORPORATES
UBS AG, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, STATE GRID CORPORATION OF CHINA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Chinese coal quality rules may hit exporters

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 18 : 13-Jan-15

The ANZ Bank’s Mark Pervan says China’s move to impose quality-control restrictions on coal shipments may adversely affect Australian coal producers. China plans to crack down on the importation of coal whose ash content exceeds 16 per cent. Some 92 per cent of the 40.3 million tonnes of coal imported from Australia in the first 10 months of 2014 exceeded this threshold. Pervan notes that it is costly for producers to subject coal to greater processing in order to reduce its ash content

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, CHINA. NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND REFORM COMMISSION

Lower $A to fuel foreign profit growth

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 13-Jan-15

The eight per cent fall in the value of the Australian dollar during 2014 has been a boon for companies with a significant presence offshore, particularly in the US. The shares of companies with strong earnings in the US rose by 12.7 per cent in 2014, and Chris Nicol of Morgan Stanley is upbeat about the earnings outlook for stocks such as Macquarie Group, CSL, Goodman Group and Ansell in 2015

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, ALS LIMITED – ASX ALQ, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, PHILO CAPITAL ADVISERS PTY LTD, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, RESMED INCORPORATED – ASX RMD, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL

Bank profits to slow, says Fitch

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Clancy Yeates
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 13-Jan-15

Fitch Ratings notes that a decline in bad debts has contributed to the growth of Australian banks’ profits in recent years. However, a new report from Fitch warns that the banks are likely to face a rise in bad debts in 2015, which will result in lower profit growth. Factor such as rising competition in the home loans sector will also adversely affect growth in earnings

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Oil plunge will stir M&A when price settles

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 12-Jan-15

Santos, Senex Energy and Horizon Energy are among the Australian companies whose share prices have fallen sharply in response to the downturn in the crude oil price. Experts say lower valuations in the oil and gas sector is likely to prompt mergers and acquisitions activity, although some suggest that potential suitors will bide their time as the oil price and shares may fall further. The price of Brent oil closed at $US50.11 per barrel on 9 January 2015

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY, HORIZON OIL LIMITED – ASX HZN, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, TOTAL SA, INPEX CORPORATION, ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED – ASX ROC, FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX DLS, AMBASSADOR OIL AND GAS LIMITED – ASX AQO, MAGNUM HUNTER RESOURCES CORPORATION, NIDO PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX NDO, BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL, METGASCO LIMITED – ASX MEL, ELK PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX ELK, BP PLC, BP AMOCO PLC, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, CHEVRON CORPORATION, TEXACO INCORPORATED, BERNSTEIN AND ASSOCIATES, BRIGHTOIL PETROLEUM, HARBOUR ENERGY LIMITED, TEMASEK HOLDINGS (PTE) LTD, PAVILION ENERGY PTE LTD

AMP strategist says crude likely to hit $US40 before any recovery

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 22 : 9-Jan-15

The crude oil price is currently trading at about $US50 a barrel, but AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver says production is unlikely to be reduced until it falls to around $US40. He adds that historical analysis shows that any resulting rebound in the oil price is likely to occur gradually. Meanwhile, Oliver says investors should capitalise on any downturn in share prices as a result of the falling oil price

CORPORATES
AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX KAR, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY

Price crash may see BHP pull rigs

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 20 : 8-Jan-15

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at $US48 per barrel on 7 January 2015. Paul Young of Deutsche Bank suggests that BHP Billiton could potentially reduce the number of drilling rigs it operates in the Permian Basin in the US until there is a sustained rebound in the oil price. Young adds that BHP could delay adding additional drilling rigs until the oil price rises to about $US80/barrel, which may not occur until around 2018

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

M&A deals to outpace IPOs in 2015

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sally Rose
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 20 : 6-Jan-15

Australia boasted more than $US16.21bn ($A20bn) worth of IPOs in 2014. Data from Dealogic shows that Macquarie Group handled some $US4.169bn worth of IPOs, ahead of UBS with $US2.52bn. Medibank Private dominated IPO activity in 2014, and Hugh Falcon of Macquarie expects float activity to be strong again in 2015. Simon Cox of UBS forecasts that investors will be more selective about the IPOs they back in 2015

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, SPOTLESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SPO, GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED – ASX GNE, ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED – ASX EHE, ASALEO CARE LIMITED – ASX AHY, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL