ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Australian real wage growth among worst in OECD

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Original article by Rachel Clun
The Age – Page: Online : 10-Jul-24

A report from the OECD has concluded that real wages in Australia are still 4.8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. The Paris-based organisation’s latest employment outlook also shows that Australia is one of 16 member countries whose real incomes have fallen since the end of 2019. The report notes that although real wages have risen in 2024 for the first time in nearly three years, Australian households are still under pressure due to the cost-of-living crisis. Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the report shows that the federal government’s policies to increase real wages are making a "meaningful difference".

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.3pts to 79.0 after End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales finish up; buying sentiment indicator has largest weekly drop so far this year

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jul-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.3pts to 79.0 in the week to 7 July, its biggest weekly decline so far this year. Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 75 straight weeks below the mark of 85; although Consumer Confidence is now 5.7 points above the same week a year ago (73.3), it is 2.8 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.8. Consumer Confidence was down in New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia, but virtually unchanged in Queensland. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the biggest drop for this indicator so far this year), while 51% (up 5ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the largest increase for this indicator so far this year).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence drops 5.5pts to 91.5 in June to lowest so far this year after Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Jul-24

In June 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 91.5 (down 5.5pts since May), the second straight monthly fall and its lowest level so far this year. Business Confidence is now 19.7pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 2.7pts since June 2023. Now 45.5% (down 6.5ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 51.6% (up 6.6ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, only 36.1% (down 1.9ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early days of the pandemic in April 2020), while 40.7% (also down 1.9ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for June are based on 1,455 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.9pts to 81.3 as End of Financial Year (EOFY) sales provide a late June boost

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 3-Jul-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 0.9pts to 81.3 in the week to 30 June, although it has now spent a record 74 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 7.2 points above the same week a year ago (74.1), but it is still 0.6 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. Consumer Confidence was unchanged in the two largest States of New South Wales and Victoria, and up slightly in Queensland, WA and SA. Now 20% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 50% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 31% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ (the lowest figure for this indicator since the first week of January).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Almost 3000 builders collapse in a year

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 3-Jul-24

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that a total of 10,497 companies were declared insolvent in the 2023-24 financial year up to l6 June. This includes 2,832 insolvencies in the construction industry, which is 28 per cent higher than the previous financial year. The data also shows that rate of corporate collapses in the building industry is accelerating, with 120 insolvency appointments during the first two weeks of June; this compares with 314 in May and 255 in April. Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn says factors such as labour shortages, material cost inflation, inefficient regulation and "draconian" industrial relations reforms have made construction projects unsustainable.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged after the Reserve Bank leaves interest rates unchanged

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 80.4 in the week to 23 June, although it has now spent a record 73 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 5.5 points above the same week a year ago (74.9), but is still 1.5 points below the 2024 weekly average of 81.9. A look at Consumer Confidence by State shows that there were increases in NSW and Victoria, but modest declines in Queensland, WA and SA. Now 19% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 30% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (up 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 8% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 25% (up 4ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations in late June have stabilised at 4.8% – down only slightly from the month of May

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 26-Jun-24

The latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations are 4.8% for the week of June 17-24. This figure is below the average so far this year of 5.0%, and down 0.1% points from the month of May. A look at monthly Inflation Expectations for May 2024 shows the measure at 4.9% for the month – the equal lowest monthly figure so far this year, and down 0.3% points from April 2024 (5.2%). Looking back over the last few months, since the start of the year, weekly Inflation Expectations have moved in a narrow band of 4.8%-5.3% and averaged 5.0%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,026 Australians aged 14+ in May 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Roy Morgan Business Confidence drops 2.3pts to 97.0 in May after under-whelming Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

In May 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 97.0 (down 2.3pts since April 2024) and still just marginally below the neutral level of 100. Business Confidence is now 14.2pts below the long-term average of 111.2, although it is up 6.7pts since May 2023. Now 52% (down 0.1ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next year, while 45% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, only 38% (down 3ppts) of businesses say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business (the lowest figure for this indicator since the early days of the pandemic in April 2020), while 42.6% (up 6.1ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for May are based on 1,513 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers 3.3pts to 80.3 following the King’s Birthday long weekend

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Jun-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 3.3pts to 80.3 in the week to 16 June, although it has now spent a record 72 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 7.9 points above the same week a year ago (72.4), but it is still 1.7 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.0. Consumer Confidence has increased in most States, but the measure is virtually unchanged in Victoria. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (up 6ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 9% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Outlier economist predicts two rate rises this year

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 18-Jun-24

Economists at three of Australia’s four major banks are of the view that interest rates have peaked and the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin easing monetary policy in November. Other economists expect the first rate cut in 2025. However, Judo Bank’s economic adviser Warren Hogan expects the RBA to increase the cash rate in both August and November. He says the central bank’s board will be concerned about recent economic data such as higher-than-expected jobs growth in May, which suggests that inflation will remain above the target range. He adds that tax cuts and governments’ cost-of-living relief may add to inflation.

CORPORATES
JUDO BANK PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA