ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Mine prospecting booms as explorers look past China dip

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 27-Mar-24

Data from advisory firm BDO Australias shows that resources companies in the pre-revenue stage spent a total of $1.01bn on exploration in the December quarter. This was the highest level of exploration expenditure in the final three months of a calendar year in the last decade. Meanwhile, exploration companies raised a total of $2.68bn from investors during the quarter, which is 32 per cent higher than the previous three months.

CORPORATES
BDO AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Australian unemployment increases in February; but under-employment drops to lowest since September 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

In February 2024, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,436,000 (9.2% of the workforce) and an additional 1,501,000 (9.6%) were under-employed. In total, 2.94 million Australians (18.8%) were unemployed or under-employed in February. Although unemployment and under-employment remain high, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 711,000 to 14,228,000. This is the first month in which total employment has exceeded 14.2 million. Employment increased by 78,000 in February; full-time employment drove the increase (up 154,000 to a new record high of 9,359,000), while part-time employment dropped 76,000 to 4,869,000. The workforce in February was 15,664,000 (up 132,000 from January, and up 626,000 from a year ago). Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 9.2% is more than double the ABS estimate of 4.1% for January, but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.7%. The February Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross-section of people aged 14+.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 81.7 in mid-March before final pre-Budget meeting of RBA

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 81.7 in the week to 17 March. However, the index has now spent a record 59 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is again 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (76.5), but 1.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.0. Consumer Confidence was up in New South Wales and Queensland, but down in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year), while 52% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 32% (down 1 ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 32% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 10% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (also unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.2pts to 82.2

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.2 points to 82.2 in the week to 10 March. However, the index has now spent a record 58 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is 5.2 points above the same week a year ago (77.0), but 1 point below the 2024 weekly average of 83.2. Now 19% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 30% (down 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (unchanged) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 31% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 20% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Lending malaise as home loans retreat

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Megan Neil
The Australian – Page: 19 : 8-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the value of new housing loans fell by 3.9 per cent to $25.12bn in January; this followed a 4.1 per cent decline in December. The general consensus of economists had been for two per cent growth in home loans during January. The value of new owner-occupier loans fell by 4.6 per cent to $15.91bn, and lending to property investors was down 2.6 per cent to $9.21bn. Meanwhile, lending to first-home buyers was down 6.9 per cent, and the value of those loans fell by six per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 2.2pts to 81.0 in early March – lowest since early December 2023

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Mar-24

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.2pts to 81.0 in the week to 3 March, the lowest the indicator has been all year; it has now spent a record 57 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 1.1 points above the same week a year ago (79.9), but 2.3 points below the 2024 weekly average of 83.3. Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged in the largest states of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and down in WA and SA. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 55% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’. Looking forward, 33% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’. Now 11% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 32% (up 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 21% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (up 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Imports fall as households cut back

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 6-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the nation’s current account surplus rose to $11.8bn in the December quarter, compared with just $1.3bn in the three months to September. Import volumes fell by 2.8 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in the December quarter, with import volumes of consumer goods down 5.4 per cent. Export volumes were down 0.4 per cent, although higher iron ore and coal prices boosted overall export prices by 3.1 per cent. Meanwhile, economists expect the national accounts data to be released on Wednesday will show that GDP growth was 0.2 per cent in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Risk to GDP growth as firms destock

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 5-Mar-24

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has reported that inventories fell by 1.7 per cent in the December quarter as private sector companies destocked, in part due to weaker demand. The surprise fall in inventories has increased speculation that GDP figures for the December quarter, which are to be released on Wednesday, will show a contraction, which would be the first since the September 2021 quarter. Asked about the prospect of GDP growth having been negative in the December quarter, Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that Britain and Japan had recently fallen into a technical recession.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

New house pipeline at near-12 year low

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 5-Mar-24

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that approvals for new detached homes fell by 9.6 per cent month-on-month in January, to the lowest level since mid-2012. Approvals for apartments, townhouses and semi-detached homes fell by 22 per cent. Tamawood CEO Robert Lynch says the house construction market has most likely reached its bottom; however, he cautions that factors such as high interest rates mean that a rebound may take some time. He adds that sales activity in the more affordable segment of the housing market – in which Tamawood specialises – is likely to recover first.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, TAMAWOOD LIMITED – ASX TWD

Inflation Expectations in late February are at 5.1% – unchanged from the month of January (5.1%)

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Feb-24

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.1% for the week of February 19-25, which is in line with the average so far this year of 5.1% and unchanged from the month of January. A look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for January 2024 shows the measure at 5.1% for the month, a decrease of 0.2% points on December 2023 (5.3%). In the month of January 2024 Australians expected inflation of 5.1% annually over the next two years – the lowest monthly figure for Inflation Expectations s since February 2022. Since January ended, Inflation Expectations have stabilised within a narrow band over the last few weeks. Inflation Expectations are following a similar trend as the broader official inflation measure. The latest ABS monthly CPI estimate for December 2023 of 3.4% is down 0.9% from November, and down 2.2% points since September (5.6%). The sharp drop in the official inflation readings has raised hopes the RBA will not undertake any further interest rate increases. The ABS will release the January monthly inflation readings later this week which will inform the RBA’s actions at its next meeting in mid-March. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,100 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,032 Australians aged 14+ in January 2024.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS