ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

Migrant intake has already hit record 500k

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Original article by Michael Read, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 25-Oct-23

The Treasury has previously forecast that net overseas migration totalled 400,000 in the year to June. However, former Immigration Department official Abul Rizvi estimates that net overseas migration topped 470,000 in the year to June; he adds that the migrant intake probably reached 500,000 in the year to September. Rizvi also believes that the Treasury’s forecast that the annual migrant intake will fall to 315,000 by June 2024 is unlikely to be realised. Brendan Coates from the Grattan Institute says Australia’s record migrant intake will increase housing demand and put upward pressure on the inflation rate.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, GRATTAN INSTITUTE

Inflation Expectations in mid-October at 5.7% – significantly higher than in September (5.2%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are at 5.7% for the week of October 16-22 – up 0.4% points from a week ago. This is the highest weekly Inflation Expectations have been since the first week of July. However, a look at the monthly Inflation Expectations for September shows that the measure was down 0.2% points to 5.2%. In the month of September, Australians expected inflation of 5.2% annually over the next two years. This decline in Inflation Expectations in the month of September is important given that the monthly ABS CPI estimate for September is set to be released on Wednesday. The ABS monthly CPI estimate for August was 5.2%, up from 4.9% in the year to July. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 6,025 Australians aged 14+ in September 2023.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 1.8pts to 78.2

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 25-Oct-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 1.8pts to 78.2 in the week to 22 October; it has now spent 38 straight weeks below the mark of 85, the longest streak at this level since 1990-91. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia. Now 18% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 36% (down 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (up 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (down 2ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 7.6pts to 87.1 in September – lowest for three years since September 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-23

In September 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 87.1 (down 7.6pts since August). This is the lowest Business Confidence since September 2020, when Victoria was in an extended lockdown and New South Wales was enduring significant COVID-19 outbreaks. The Business Confidence survey was conducted after the RBA left interest rates unchanged for a third straight month in September at 4.1%. However, there were renewed concerns about inflation during September, with average retail petrol prices hitting a record high. Business Confidence has now spent eight consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 55.2% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 63.1% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 38.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 30.5% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 7.8% points and the only index in positive territory. The pressure that high inflation and rising interest rates are placing on consumer spending habits is clear when one considers the Retail industry has the lowest Business Confidence of all at only 43.6, and more than halving from a year ago, down 44.1pts (-50.3%) from a year ago. This is an all-time record low reading of Business Confidence for the Retail industry heading into the most important retailing period of the year. The just released ARA-Roy Morgan pre-Christmas forecasts predict total pre-Christmas retail sales of $78 billion (up 0.4% on a year ago), and a seasonally adjusted figure of $66.8 billion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 3.7pts to 76.4, a pull-back after one week above 80

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.7pts to 76.4 in the week to 15 October, unable to register back-to-back weeks above 80 for the first time since early February. Consumer Confidence is now 5.8pts below the same week a year ago (82.2), and below the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was down in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but up slightly in Western Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 53% (up 4ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 37% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 18% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 52% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Australia’s wealthiest 20% worth 90 times the country’s poorest, new report reveals

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Original article by Cait Kelly
The Guardian Australia – Page: Online : 27-Sep-23

The Australian Council of Social Service and the University of New South Wales have released a report which highlights the nation’s growing wealth gap. The report, which is based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data from 2019, concluded that superannuation and property investment have been key drivers of growth in wealth over the last two decades. The wealthiest five per cent of Australians were worth an average of $6.7m in 2019, accounting for one-third of the nation’s combined wealth. Likewise, the wealthiest 20 per cent of Australians were worth an average of $3.2m. In contrast, people in the lowest quartile relied on an average of $419 each week in social security payments for half of their income.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN COUNCIL OF SOCIAL SERVICE, UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down 3.4pts to 76.4 – lowest since mid-August

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 27-Sep-23

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 3.4pts to 76.4 in the week to 24 September; it has now spent a record 30 straight weeks below the mark of 80. Consumer Confidence is now 11.4pts below the same week a year ago (87.8), and 1.7 pts below the 2023 weekly average of 78.1. Consumer Confidence was down in the four largest States of New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia, but unchanged in South Australia. Now 19% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 54% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 19% (unchanged) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 54% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Pay rises surge, closing in on inflation levels

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Original article by David Marin-Guzman
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Sep-23

Data from the Fair Work Commission shows that 174 enterprise agreements were submitted for approval in the two weeks to 25 August. The average annual increase in these workplace agreements was 4.7 per cent. Pat Bustamante of Westpac notes that the higher wage increases in new enterprise agreements follows the FWC’s decision to increase the minimum wage by 5.75 per cent from 1 July. She adds that high inflation could become entrenched if wages continue to grow at 4-4.7 per cent mark without productivity improvements.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. FAIR WORK COMMISSION, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Deal activity dives as rates hit hard

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Original article by David Swan
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 22-Sep-23

Data from Refinitiv shows that mergers and acquisitions involving Australians companies has totalled $US81.3bn so far in 2023, which is 27 per cent lower than at the same time in 2022. Investment banks’ advisory fees for completed M&A deal are 62 per cent lower than the same period in 2022, at $US354m. Underwriting fees for equity and debt capital market transactions have in turn fallen by 16 per cent and nine per cent respectively. Nick Sims from Goldman Sachs Australia expects deal-making activity to pick up for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024, in the absence of any macroeconomic or geopolitical shocks.

CORPORATES
REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Inflation Expectations dropped to 5.4% for the month of August – and have now fallen to 4.9% in mid-September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 20-Sep-23

In August 2023, Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from July. This is also down 0.2% points from a year ago in August 2022 (5.6%) and in line with the monthly average so far this year of 5.4%. The latest weekly Inflation Expectations are now at 4.9% in mid-September – the lowest weekly Inflation Expectations for 18 months since early February 2022, before Russia invaded Ukraine. The softening in Inflation Expectations in recent weeks suggest that the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at its last three board meetings may be the correct decision, but there are still significant pressures in the economy. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source, which has interviewed an average of around 5,000 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade and includes interviews with 5,982 Australians aged 14+ in August.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS