ECONOMIC INDICATORS – AUSTRALIA

House prices plunge 8.4pc from peak

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Jan-23

Data from CoreLogic shows that house prices have fallen by 8.4 per cent nationally since peaking in May. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says the sharp decline is primarily due to the aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle, noting that interest rates have not increased so quickly in more than three decades. She anticipates a further market downturn in coming months, given that more interest rate rises are likely, and suggests that a double-digit fall in national house prices is possible. Sydney has recorded a 13 per cent fall in house prices, while prices in Melbourne are down 8.6 per cent peak-to-trough.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.5 in the week before Christmas

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Dec-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.5 in the week ended 18 December. However, it is 25.9pts below the same week a year ago (108.4) and 6.2pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.7. Consumer confidence was up slightly in New South Wales and Victoria but down in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Now 23% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (also unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 6% (down 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 35% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 82.9 despite eighth straight interest rate increase

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 14-Dec-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 82.9 in the week ended 11 December. However, it is 25.1pts below the same week a year ago (108.0) and 5.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 88.8. Consumer confidence was up slightly in New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia, but down in Victoria and Queensland. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (up 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 33% (down 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 33% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 23% (down 3ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 49% (up 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

October retail results remain solid despite economic headwinds

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Original article by
Australian Retailers Association – Page: Online : 29-Nov-22

Retail sales continue to show robust year-on-year growth, with $35 billion spent in stores and online in October; this is an increase of 12.5 per cent on the same time a year ago, according to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, retail turnover fell 0.2 per cent compared to the previous month, which is the sector’s first monthly fall in 2022. There were strong year-on-year sales increases for clothing, footwear and personal accessories (up 32.8%), cafes, restaurants and take-away food (up 35.3%), and department stores (up 23.0%). Australian Retailers Association CEO Paul Zahra says that while the results remain solid for retail, some softening of sales is inevitable as Australians confront the cost-of-living challenges. He says the ARA is optimistic about pre-Christmas trading, anticipating a $63.9 billion spend this year; this is up three percent on 2021 spending, according to the ARA-Roy Morgan predictions.

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AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Inflation tipped to rise to highest level in 32 years

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Original article by Emma Rapaport
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 29-Nov-22

The latest monthly inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Catherine Birch from the ANZ Bank expects the data to show that the headline inflation rate rose from 7.3 per cent in September to 7.8 per cent in October. Birch also forecasts that the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of trimmed mean inflation will rise from 5.4 per cent to 5.9 per cent. The ANZ expects the quarterly headline inflation rate to peak at eight per cent in the final three months of 2022 and remain above the central bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent until the end of 2024. It also anticipates that the Reserve Bank will begin to ease monetary policy in November 2024.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Housing affordability set to worsen despite falling house prices

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Original article by Nila Sweeney
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 24-Nov-22

The latest ANZ/CoreLogic Housing Affordability report shows that rising interest rates saw the cost of servicing a mortgage surge in the September quarter. The proportion of income needed to repay a new mortgage rose by 4.4 percentage points nationwide, to 43.3 per cent. This metric rose to a record high of 51.1 per cent in Sydney, while it increased by 4.3 per cent to 42.4 per cent in Melbourne. Eliza Owen of CoreLogic says mortgage serviceability is likely to worsen given that further increases in the cash rate are expected.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 0.8pts to 81.6 – first consecutive weekly increases since late September

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Nov-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 81.6 in the week ended 20 November. It is now 25.8pts below the same week a year ago (107.4), and 7.6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.2. There were mixed results around the nation; Consumer Confidence decreased in NSW and Queensland, while the other three mainland States all increased. Now 21% of Australians (unchanged) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 49% (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 30% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 36% (up 1ppt) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (down 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 24% (up 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 46% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 2.1pts to 80.8 – the weekly increase halts a run of six straight declines

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 16-Nov-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rose 2.1pts to 80.8 in the week ended 13 November. It is now 25.2pts below the same week a year ago (106.0), and 8.6pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.4. There were mixed results around the nation; Consumer Confidence increased in NSW and Queensland, Victoria was unchanged while the index was down in Western Australia and South Australia. Now 21% of Australians (down 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 46% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 31% (up 2ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 35% (down 3ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 8% (up 2ppts) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 39% (down 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 1ppt) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 50% (unchanged) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.4pts to 82.2 after Australian Dollar drops to lowest since April 2020

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Oct-22

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.4pts to 82.2 in the week ended 16 October. It is now 24.8pts below the same week a year ago (107.0), and 8.1pts below the 2022 weekly average of 90.3. Consumer Confidence fell in most States: down in NSW, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia, but there was an improvement in Western Australia. Now 22% of Australians (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year, while 45% (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially. Some 32% (unchanged) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 34% (up 4ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially. Only 7% (up 1ppt) of Australians now expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 38% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’. Meanwhile, 22% (down 2ppts) of Australians say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 48% (up 3ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Inflation Expectations down 0.2% points to 5.4% in September – before the petrol excise returned in full

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-22

In September 2022, Australians expected inflation of 5.4% annually over the next two years, down 0.2% points from August. Inflation Expectations in September are 0.9% points higher than a year ago, and 2.2% points above the record low of 3.2% reached in June 2020. Although Inflation Expectations have dropped for a second straight month, the return of the full petrol excise at the end of September is set to lead to higher inflation expectations going forward. A deeper look at Inflation Expectations by employment status shows that the largest increase has been for people who are unemployed, up 2.6% points to 6.4% since the measure reached a record low in June 2020. The second highest Inflation Expectations are for those people who are under-employed, employed part-time but wanting more work, up 2% points to 5.8% since June 2020. On a State-based level Inflation Expectations were highest in New South Wales at 5.8% and Tasmania at 5.6%. The data for the Inflation Expectations series is drawn from the Roy Morgan Single Source which has interviewed an average of 4,700 Australians aged 14+ per month over the last decade, and includes interviews with 6,069 Australians aged 14+ in September.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED