ELECTIONS – AUSTRALIA

PM puts budget relief on fast track

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 28-Nov-18

A federal election seems likely to be held on either 11 or 18 May, after the government announced that it will bring forward the 2019 Budget to 2 April. The government is also set to post the first Budget surplus since 2007-08 on the back of higher tax revenue. The Treasury has previously forecast a surplus of $2.2bn in 2019-20, following a deficit of $14.5bn in 2018-19. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen advocates greater action on Budget repair due to the downside risks to the global economy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Early budget points to a May election

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 26-Nov-18

The federal government is expected to deliver its 2019 Budget in late March or early April, rather than the traditional date of the second Tuesday in May. This would allow the government to lock in an election date in May and see out its full term in office. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has reiterated his government’s commitment to returning the Budget to surplus in 2019-20, which suggests that a recent revenue windfall will be spent on election promises rather than further Budget repair measures.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, BUSINESS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Crossbench chaos to thwart Shorten plans

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Simon Benson
The Australian – Page: 2 : 19-Nov-18

Research conducted by the Australia Institute suggests that Labor will not be able to rely on a voting bloc with the Greens to get legislation passed by the Senate if it wins the next election. The Institute predicts that Labor and the Greens will have at best 38 senators between them, which is not enough for a majority. As a result, Labor would be required to enter into negotiations with crossbencher to get legislation passed in the same manner that the Coalition has had to do since 2013.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, CENTRE ALLIANCE

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine talks to Stan Grant on "Matter Of Fact"

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Nov-18

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine joins Stan Grant’s panel on the ABC’s "Matter Of Fact" program and reveals some enlightening insights into what is driving Queensland electors. Levine says the next federal election will be fought on economic issues in Queensland, and she discusses the factors that prompted a large swing against the Liberal-National Party in the Longman by-election. She also notes that the L-NP could lose a number of marginal seats in Queensland at the next election, and adds that disillusionment with both the L-NP and Labor could see a rise in support for independents and minor parties.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Wentworth by-election means death of cheap robo-polling & leaked private party polls!

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Morgan Poll Analysis – Page: Online : 25-Oct-18

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine two days before the Wentworth by-election on Sky News’ new political show "Conroy & Kroger" when asked why she was so critical of cheap polls said: "They may be cheaper, but I can’t really see any point in doing a poll that is going to get the wrong answer. And this is not, as somebody was saying earlier, about people not wanting to tell the truth or in fact lying when they get polled, it’s not that at all, it’s just that these modern new silly ways of polling which are either robo-polls or telephone polls which only get a small proportion of the population or online polls with commercial panels of people who volunteer to be part of it, they only get a really small piece of the population." A stunning example is provided by the Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll results which last week was reported on by Carly Earl for the Guardian prior to the Wentworth by-election. The Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll primary vote predictions were significantly in error for several of the leading candidates. Out by more than 10% for Liberal Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray and out by more than 3% for the two Independent candidates Kerryn Phelps and Licia Heath. The ReachTel robo-poll’s prediction for the critical two candidate preferred result was even further out. Not only did the two-candidate preferred result compound the error made by being over 10% out on the primary vote for Liberal candidate Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray but the preference flows were a further source of error and meant the poll was completely wrong when predicting the two-candidate preferred result between Phelps and Sharma. For the full analysis and video of Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s appearance on Conroy & Kroger click through here.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, GREENPEACE, REACHTEL PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SKY NEWS

Voters will clip cocky Labor’s wings: Pyne

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Owen, Luke Griffiths
The Australian – Page: 4 : 24-Oct-18

Defence Minister Christopher Pyne has accused Labor of being overconfident about its chances of winning the next federal election. Pyne holds the seat of Sturt in South Australia with a margin of 5.9 per cent. However, Labor senator Don Farrell believes that Pyne’s chances of retaining the seat have been significantly reduced following the ousting of former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, who was popular in Sturt. Meanwhile, counting of votes in the Wentworth by-election is continuing; independent candidate Kerryn Phelps had 51.05% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis at 3.3pm on Tuesday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF DEFENCE, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Morrison in bid for unity on energy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joe Kelly, Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 1 & 6 : 23-Oct-18

The federal government will establish a price benchmark for electricity retailers, which was a key recommendation of the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission’s review of electricity prices. The "default market offer" rate will take effect from mid-2019, and is part of the government’s commitment to reducing power bills. Meanwhile, National Party MP Keith Pitt rejects suggestions that the Coalition’s climate change policy was the main cause of its poor performance in the Wentworth by-election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF SCIENTIST, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Libs millions shy in campaign fighting funds

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 7 : 23-Oct-18

The Liberal Party is estimated to have spent about $1m on contesting the Wentworth by-election, while independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is believed to have had a campaign budget of about $300,000. Sources within the Liberal Party have indicated that it is still well short of the campaign funding target it requires for the 2019 federal election, following a number of other by-elections in recent months. Phelps holds a 1,626-vote lead over Liberal candidate Dave Sharma, with 51.11% of the vote on a two-party preferred basis at 6pm on Monday. Phelps has ruled out claiming victory until all votes are counted.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Kerryn Phelps expected to win Wentworth by-election although about 4000 postal votes still to be counted

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 22-Oct-18

Independent candidate Kerryn Phelps is expected to win a close Wentworth by-election – although as Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said two days before the by-election, when asked who would win on Sky News: "Nobody would know!" At 7pm Sunday night the two-party preferred result was 51.1% for Phelps v 48.9% for the Liberals’ Dave Sharma. Sharma had 36,093 votes on a two-party basis while Phelps had 37,719, a difference of 1,626. The Liberals were gaining about 63.56% of postal votes already counted on a two-party basis, with 528 postal vote envelopes received but not processed. However, about 4,000 postal votes are yet to be returned to the Australian Electoral Commission. The Wentworth result rewrites the record books, with an 18 per cent swing against the Liberal Party on a two-party-preferred basis. Before Saturday night, the biggest 2PP swing recorded in by-elections since 1949 was in 1995 when the Liberals won the seat of Canberra – a 16.1 per cent swing.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Howard in late bid to rescue Libs

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Dennis Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 18-Oct-18

Former prime minister John Howard will campaign in the seat of Wentworth on behalf of Liberal candidate Dave Sharma. Malcolm Turnbull held the seat with a margin of 17 per cent, but Howard has warned that there is a high risk that the Liberals will lose Wentworth for the first time. He has also sent a letter to voters stressing that a Liberal win is necessary to ensure a stable government. Meanwhile, independent candidate Kerryn Phelps has condemned an email campaign in which it was alleged that she has withdrawn from the by-election after being diagnosed with HIV.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY