MONETARY POLICY – AUSTRALIA

Low inflation corners RBA

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 29-Jan-15

Australia’s underlying inflation rate increased by 0.7 per cent in the December 2014 quarter, which was higher than expected. There was an 0.2 per cent increase in the CPI during the quarter, and 1.7 per cent year-on-year. The benign inflation data may strengthen the case for a reduction in the cash rate when the Reserve Bank board meets on 3 February 2015. The central bank may also be swayed by recent monetary policy easing in other countries, which may prompt renewed support for the Australian dollar

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Don’t cut rates, says ANZ chief

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Original article by Jacob Greber, James Chessell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 28-Jan-15

ANZ Bank CEO Mike Smith says the Reserve Bank should delay any easing of monetary policy. He remains upbeat about the outlook for the Australian economy, noting that the downturn in the value of the dollar has helped to offset the economic impact of lower commodity prices. The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing have heightened speculation of further rate cuts in Australia

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF CANADA, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

Aussie’s tumble may slow RBA cuts

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 27-Jan-15

The Australian dollar reached a low of $US0.7855 on 26 January 2015, and it has lost more than four per cent of its value in just over a week. The currency’s recent decline could prompt the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate on hold in the near-term. Central bank governor Glenn Stevens recently suggested that a fall to around the $US0.75 level would be desirable. The upcoming release of inflation data is likely to influence monetary policy

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Rate cut likely as spending slows

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 19 : 22-Jan-15

There was a 2.4 per cent increase in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment in January 2015. The index rose from 91.1 in December to 93.2 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms. Meanwhile, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index has increased by 1.4 per cent to 113.6, although the data is not seasonally adjusted. Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans expects the cash rate to be reduced in both February and March

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, WORLD BANK, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Chance of rate cuts recede

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Joanna Heath
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 16-Jan-15

New figures show that 37,400 jobs were created in Australia during December 2014, with the unemployment rate easing to 6.1 per cent. The general consensus of economists was that about 5,000 jobs had been created. The labour market figures may weaken the case for further easing of monetary policy, with Michael Blythe of the Commonwealth Bank forecasting that the cash rate will remain unchanged in 2015. However, the ANZ Bank expects two rate cuts in the next year

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EMPLOYMENT, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, WORLD BANK, LIBERAL-NATIONAL PARTY OF QUEENSLAND, QUEENSLAND. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, WATPAC LIMITED – ASX WTP, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Rouble rout sends Aussie on the slide

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 18-Dec-14

The Australian dollar reached an intra-day low of $US0.8166 on 17 December 2014. The bearish sentiment toward the commodity currency was prompted by the continued selldown of Russia’s rouble, which has shed about 15 per cent in recent days. The Australian dollar’s continued weakness may be welcomed by the Reserve Bank, which have been talking down the currency for some time. However, Stephen Halmarick of Colonial First State Global Asset Management says this could mean that interest rate cuts in 2015 may not be necessary

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, LATAM AUTOS LIMITED – ASX LAA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE

Stevens calls for US75c dollar

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Michael Stutchbury
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 10 : 12-Dec-14

The Australian dollar is currently trading at around $US0.83, but Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens believes that it needs to fall further. He argues that a more appropriate level for the currency would be about $US0.75, arguing that the decline in Australia’s terms of trade means the dollar needs to be lower. Stevens also says that the need for stability is a major reason why interest rates were kept on hold during 2014, and stresses that any further easing of monetary policy would need to has a positive effect on business and consumer confidence

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Property curbs pave way for RBA rate cuts

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 11-Dec-14

Martin Whetton of the ANZ Bank says the decision to implement measures aimed at curbing growth in loans for investment properties could lead a reduction in the cash rate. The bond market had anticipated such action by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, with the 10-year bond rate falling below three per cent and the three-year bond rate easing to 2.27 per cent

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TRIPLE T CONSULTING LIMITED

Westpac breaks ranks to tip RBA will cut rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 5-Dec-14

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans expects official interest rates to be reduced in both February and March 2015, citing factors such as the latest GDP data and the high Australian dollar. National Australia Bank and ANZ Bank economists have indicated that they may revise their forecasts for interest rates to remain on hold until late 2015. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse have already forecast that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate in 2015

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

RBA changes tune, opens door to interest rate cuts if $A stays high

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 3-Dec-14

The Australian dollar rose to $US0.8524 on 2 December 2014, after the Reserve Bank adopted a dovish position on monetary policy. The central bank has had a bias toward raising interest rates for some time, but governor Glenn Stevens has signalled that the cash rate could be cut again in 2015 if the dollar remains high. The Reserve Bank left the cash rate on hold at its final meeting for 2014

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC