PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

State of the Nation – Election 2019 a photo finish

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Original article by Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-May-19

What seemed like a foregone conclusion after the Liberal Party Leadership upheaval late last year has suddenly become a competitive contest between the L-NP Government led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the Bill Shorten-led ALP Opposition. After Malcolm Turnbull was ‘turfed out’ from his job as Prime Minister in August 2018, and replaced by the then largely unknown among the public Scott Morrison, the Roy Morgan Poll showed the ALP two-party preferred vote spiking to what seemed an unbeatable lead with the Federal Election set to be called within the next few months: ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42% (October 2018). Following the leadership change former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull immediately resigned from his seat of Wentworth causing a by-election in his seat which was won by Independent candidate Dr. Kerryn Phelps, and Liberal MP Julia Banks resigned from the Government and joined the cross-bench. At this time the Morrison Government was beset by instability and appeared to be on the verge of collapse at any moment. Many media commentators (from afar) advised new Prime Minister Morrison to call an early Federal Election to put the political uncertainty to rest. As we now know PM Morrison ignored these calls and pledged to take the Government ‘full-term’ until May 2019, which he has done, and the last three Roy Morgan Polls conducted since mid-April 2019 show a very close contest with the ALP just ahead: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. A number of key factors will determine who wins this year’s Federal Election.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Three weeks locked at ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% – Palmer "jumps" 1.5%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-May-19

For the third straight week the two major parties are locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis, according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of May 4/5, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors. Primary support for both major parties fell this week, but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result. The L-NP now has a primary vote of 38.5% (down 1%) and is clearly ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 2%) while Greens support is up 1.5% to 11%. Support for One Nation is up 1.5% to 4% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 1.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down 1.5% to 9%. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined by 2.5pts to 99 with slightly more Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ than ‘heading in the right direction’. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says both major parties require a small swing to claim a workable majority of 77 seats in the expanded 151 seat Parliament, and with the tight nature of the race it could again be independents and minor party candidates who decide who will be Prime Minister after next week’s election.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Parties locked in close contest for second week: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 30-Apr-19

For the second straight week the Roy Morgan Poll shows the two major parties locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis, according to a face-to-face survey conducted on the weekend of April 27/28, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors. Both major parties managed to increase their primary votes this week at the expense of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result ahead of the first Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in Perth. The L-NP primary vote was up 0.5% to 39.5% from a week ago compared to the ALP on 36% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 9.5% while support for One Nation fell 2% to 2.5%. Support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP) was unchanged on 2% while support for Independents/Others was up 1% to 10.5%.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY, UNITED AUSTRALIA PARTY

Game on – Game won?

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Apr-19

Last Tuesday April 23, Roy Morgan Poll published ‘Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis’. The face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll was conducted on the weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors. The latest Newspoll, published in ‘The Australian’ on Monday April 29, also shows Labor leading the L-NP 51% to 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Game On: Easter Roy Morgan Poll shows election race tightening: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-19

The ALP 51% leads the L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted on the Easter weekend of April 20/21, 2019 with a cross-section of 707 electors. The tight result at Easter means the Roy Morgan Poll has swung by 1.5% to the L-NP since the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019. The L-NP now has a primary vote of 39% (up 1.5%) and clearly ahead of the ALP on 35.5% (down 1%) while Greens support is down 1.5% to 9.5%. Support for One Nation is up 1% to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 0.5% to 2%. Support for Independents/Others is now 9.5% (down 0.5%). Roy Morgan Government Confidence has improved this week with 40% of electors saying Australia is now heading in the right direction, up 1% from a week earlier while 41% (down 1.5%) say Australia is heading in the wrong direction. These results leave Government Confidence below the neutral level of 100 and indicate the ALP is still the favourite to win with early voting opening next week, although the L-NP has closed the gap significantly during the last week.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Over a quarter of electors (27%) yet to make up their minds and election up for grabs – by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research on ABC NewsRadio

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Apr-19

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll conducted for the Australian Futures Project last week on April 17-18, 2019 with a cross-section of 1,546 electors shows 27% of electors are yet to make up their mind who they will vote for in next month’s Federal Election and 44% of them say no party is addressing the issues that matter to them. Key demographics yet to make up their minds include 38% of Australians aged 25-34 years old and 33% of Queensland electors. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine highlighted that although the ALP remains the favourite, the large number of undecided voters means there could still be a turning point in the election campaign that costs the ALP victory. This is the probably first election that I’ve seen where you’ve really had some fundamental issues at war with each other. At this election what the electorate wants is they want a healthy economy, they want the environment cared for and the want the cost of living preserved or not ‘flying through the roof’. So these three things don’t sit naturally together. You can’t just have all of them. Where does the money come from? Somebody has to think about these things. So they are really playing out in this election. We know from surveying people’s views about the environment and Climate change until 2008 and the Global Financial Crisis everyone was saying the environment was the most important issue for them. Then when the Financial Crisis came the issue became what are we going to do about it and who is going to pay. Now that issue is what’s being played out today. The interview with Levine was conducted before the latest Federal voting results shown above were available. Click on link to listen to 5min ABC NewsRadio interview with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Federal Election 2019: ALP (52.5%) starts ahead of L-NP (47.5%) but wrong to say Labor has election won – Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-19

Yesterday Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the Federal Election for May 18, and the last weekend’s Roy Morgan ‘face-to-face’ poll showed the ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%) with a winning lead as official campaigning begins. However, the example of the 1993 Liberal ‘unloseable’ Federal election showed that one mis-step can swing the result of the election, when Opposition Leader John Hewson ‘stumbled’ over the impact of the GST on birthday cakes and subsequently lost the election. Prime Minister Morrison’s appeal to ‘trust’ in his re-election campaign is ‘gutsy’, but the real key is for leaders not to allow ‘distrust’ to attach to their campaigns and leadership. It is ‘distrust’ that really drives many electors’ voting decisions. Of more concern for electors are the areas where they ‘distrust’ a party or leader. What are electors worried about? The ALP has significant ‘distrust’ issues with their relationship with the unions and the ALP’s many potential changes to the tax system. For the L-NP the uncertainties about the change of leadership of the L-NP are still generating ‘distrust’, and the ‘shenanigans’ that big business – including financial institutions – have been engaging in are seen as a bigger problem driving ‘distrust’ in the L-NP than Labor. View the full 9-minute video with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine explaining the key drivers for next month’s Federal Election at this link.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Full disclosure of the ownership structures of market research and polling companies is of vital importance to stakeholders including the Australian public – Gary Morgan & Michele Levine, Directors of Roy Morgan Research Ltd, publisher of ABIX

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Apr-19

The example provided above of a political polling company being commissioned by one of Australia’s largest media companies to conduct polling for the recent NSW State Election and producing polling results that turned out to be significantly different to the final result of the NSW Election shows how important it is that companies commissioning important polling like this are easily able to find out who the beneficial owners of Public Opinion Pollsters and Market Research companies are. An ABC investigation has now revealed that the polling company uComms is co-owned by two prominent unions the ACTU and CFMMEU who obviously have a vested interest in the results of Federal and State Elections in Australia. Roy Morgan’s December 2018 cross-platform audience figures show that the Sydney Morning Herald (the paper which commissioned the uComm polling) is Australia’s most widely read newspaper with a total cross-platform audience of the SMH at over 4.1 million Australians – more than 1 million ahead of any other newspaper in Australia. This case is a perfect example on the eve of a Federal Election expected to be called this weekend for why it is so important for the Australian public – as well as Australia’s leading media companies such as Sydney Morning Herald now owned by Nine Entertainment Company – to have full knowledge of who the owners of Australia’s Public Opinion Pollsters and Market Research companies are. At the bottom of today’s ABIX-Roy Morgan Daily email we have provided a comprehensive list of the owners of Australia’s Public Opinion Pollsters and Market Research companies also available at link.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, UCOMM, ACTU, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC

Investigation shows political polling company used by Nine Entertainment newspapers The Age and SMH is co-owned by ACTU & CFMMEU unions

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Original article by Pat McGrath, Jeremy Story Carter, Sarah Curnow
abc.net au – Page: Online : 11-Apr-19

An investigation by the ABC has revealed that the uComms political polling company is co-owned by the ACTU (via ACTU secretary Sally McManus), the CFMMEU (via CFMMEU national secretary Michael O’Connor) and James Stewart, a former executive of ‘robo-polling’ pollster ReachTEL. The three each hold a third of UPoint’s 150 shares (50 shares each) which is listed as the sole shareholder of UComms via a paid ASIC search. In addition, the ABC reporters initially found uComm’s business address listed as the same office building in Melbourne as the ACTU, although this has since changed. The Sydney Morning Herald commissioned polling by uComms in the recent NSW Election and ran the results on the front-page of the ‘The Sun-Herald’ in mid-March headlined ‘Labor leads poll in race to wire’ showing the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two-party preferred basis. The Gladys Berejiklian-led L-NP Government was returned to power at the NSW Election winning a majority of 48 out of the 93 seats. When contacted by the ABC reporters group executive director of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, James Chessell, said the paper didn’t know the ownership structure of uComms although Chessell said they would no longer commission polls from uComms going forward.

CORPORATES
UCOMMS, ACTU, CONSTRUCTION, FORESTRY, MARITIME, MINING AND ENERGY UNION OF AUSTRALIA, REACHTEL PTY LTD

Adani mine, climate create great divide

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Original article by Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 11-Apr-19

Roy Morgan surveys of more than 40,000 Australians, broken down by federal electorates, show a much higher share of Canberrans, Melburnians and Sydneysiders nominate global warming and climate change as one of their top three election issues than voters in Brisbane and regional Queensland. Almost 38 per cent of voters in the nation’s capital, 31 per cent of Melbourne’s voters and nearly 28 per cent of Sydneysiders include the issue of climate change as one of their three top issues in the Morgan survey, compared to just 22 per cent in Brisbane and 17 per cent in regional Queensland. Nationally global warming and climate change is the fourth most important issue, nominated by 25 per cent, the survey – commissioned by the Australian Futures Project, a non-profit backed by wealthy families and La Trobe University and "dedicated to ending short-termism in Australia" – finds.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN FUTURES PROJECT, LA TROBE UNIVERSITY