PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

Latest Morgan Poll shows Julie Bishop (64%) easily preferred as Prime Minister to Bill Shorten (36%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-18

Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop has easily the strongest performance against Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in a head-to-head matchup while fellow leadership aspirant Scott Morrison is in a virtual "dead-heat" with Shorten. Julie Bishop (64%) clearly leads Bill Shorten (36%) while Bill Shorten (50.5%) and Scott Morrison (49.5%) can barely be separated according to a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 2,000 Australian electors on Thursday. An earlier SMS Morgan Poll showed PM Malcolm Turnbull (54%) ahead of Shorten (46%) while Shorten (62%) easily leads Peter Dutton (38%). Bishop’s strong performance in a head-to-head match-up with Shorten shows that if the Liberal Party wants its best chance of winning the next Federal Election Julie Bishop is the smart choice to lead the party. Follow this link to see the latest Morgan Poll results with interview between Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine and ABC TV’s Matter of Fact with Stan Grant to follow.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Snap Morgan Poll shows electors prefer Turnbull to Shorten but Shorten preferred to Dutton

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Aug-18

A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 1,250 Australian electors on August 22 shows that Malcolm Turnbull (52%) is seen as the Better Prime Minister compared to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (44.5%), while a further 3.5% cannot say. However, Bill Shorten (59%) is clearly seen as the Better PM compared to Liberal Party leadership challenger Peter Dutton (36.5%), while a further 4.5% cannot say. Analysis by gender shows that 53% of men regard Turnbull as the Better PM, a lead of 10% over Shorten (43%); Turnbull has a lead of 5% as Better PM among women (51%, compared with 46% for Shorten). Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that if the Liberal Party chose to elect Peter Dutton as the new Liberal Party Leader they would be setting Bill Shorten and the ALP on course for victory at the next Federal Election. She notes that Dutton is not significantly stronger in his home State of Queensland than any other state; just 40% of electors in Queensland see Dutton as the Better PM, while 53% say Shorten would be the Better PM.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Budget blitz: PM signs off on key measures early

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Original article by Simon Benson, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Apr-18

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull still believes that he can win the next federal election, despite consistently underperforming in public opinion polls. He argues that polling is not always reliable, and notes that most polls suggest that the outcome of the next election will be very close. Meanwhile, senior government sources have indicated that Turnbull has endorsed the majority of policy initiatives in the May 2018 Budget, including personal income tax cuts. There had been dissent between Turnbull and his Cabinet colleagues regarding measures in the 2017 Budget.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NEWSPOLL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

This week’s YouGov Galaxy Newspoll is very different to the Newspoll when Tony Abbott was Prime Minister -Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Apr-18

Although the media has managed to work itself into a ‘frenzy’ in recent days over the latest Newspoll – which was released this week showing the ALP in front of the L-NP again for the 30th straight week – the facts are that today’s ‘YouGov Galaxy Newspoll’ is conducted very differently to the original Newspoll which current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull used to oust former Prime Minister Tony Abbott less than three years ago. Today’s ‘YouGov Galaxy Newspoll’ are ‘robo-polls’ with recorded questions using Australian landlines, then these results are ‘topped-up’ with ‘online’ polling. Whereas the 30 Newspolls that spelled the end of Tony Abbott were conducted using traditional personal telephone polling. Galaxy Research was awarded the Newspoll contract in July 2015, and was bought by UK polling organisation YouGov in December 2017. YouGov is famous for calling Brexit for the ‘Remainers’ on Brexit polling day June 23, 2016. Remain 52% cf. Leave 48% – ironically the same result ‘YouGov Galaxy Newspoll’ says the ALP today leads the L-NP. To paraphrase a rather famous politician – ‘Fake News’. The latest Morgan Poll released last Friday shows the next Federal Election is ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 51% cf. L-NP 49%. This week’s latest Newspoll results analysed by Poll Bludger are available to view here – memories are short – Newspoll under-estimated the Liberal vote in the recent South Australia election by 4%!

CORPORATES
NEWSPOLL, YOUGOV LIMITED, GALAXY RESEARCH PTY LTD, MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Federal Election still too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-18

The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the ALP unchanged at 51%, narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis. The Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of March 24/25 and March 31/April 1, 2018 with 1,477 electors. Primary support for the L-NP is at 38.5%, down 1.5% from the previous fortnight and just ahead of the ALP on 37.5%, up 2%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 11% while support for One Nation dropped 0.5% to 3%. Support for Independents/ Others was up 1% to 10% with 6% of electors undecided. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts to 103. Roy Morgan’s executive chairman Gary Morgan says that if an election were called today it would be too close to call, with the performance of the respective parties in the campaign the key to determining who would win.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says Malcolm Turnbull is still a big chance to win the next Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 28-Mar-18

Poll watchers will have noticed Morgan Polls have not been publicised regularly. Morgan Polls are still conducted weekly, and results are available for subscription. The Morgan Poll has been published this week to restore balance to the political agenda – which is ‘today’ dominated by Newspoll and the call by many for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to resign. Two points are vital: Newspoll is not infallible – the accuracy of Newspoll was shown up by the South Australian Election at which Newspoll were out by 4% predicting a Liberal Party primary vote of 34% when the Liberals actually received 38% of the primary vote. Newspoll also predicted an ALP primary vote of 31%, ALP actually received 31.8%; SA Best primary vote of 17%, SA Best actually received 14.2%, Greens primary vote of 8%, Greens actually received 6.7%; Others primary vote of 10%, Others actually received 8.3%. The Federal vote can change. The latest Morgan Poll shows the two major parties neck and neck (ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%) and if an election were held today the outcome would be too close to call.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NEWSPOLL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SA-BEST, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Federal Election too close to call as L-NP holds big lead in Queensland

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 28-Mar-18

The latest Morgan Poll shows the Federal support for the L-NP up 3% to 49% in a fortnight narrowly behind the ALP down 3% to 51% on a two-party preferred basis. The Morgan Poll follows the SA Election won by the Liberal Party and controversial comments by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten regarding the proposed Adani coalmine in Queensland and was conducted over the last two weekends of March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 with 1,417 electors. Primary support for the L-NP increased to 40%, up 4% in a fortnight and was led by a jump in support for the National Party up 3% to 5.5.%. Primary support for the ALP dropped 1% to 35%, support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 12% and support for the Nick Xenophon Team was down 1% to 0.5% after its disappointing performance in the South Australian Election at which State counterpart SA Best failed to win a seat. Support for One Nation was up 0.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents/Others was down 1% to 9%. Of all electors survey a relatively high 7% were undecided.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION PARTY, SA-BEST PARTY

PM’s poll survival plan

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 5 : 6-Mar-18

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has downplayed concerns about his continued poor performance in public opinion polls. Turnbull ousted predecessor Tony Abbott after the latter had racked up 30 consecutive negative opinion polls, but the Coalition has now trailed Labor in 28 polls under Turnbull’s leadership. Supporters of Turnbull argue that he also cited factors such as Abbott’s lack of economic leadership for the spill in September 2015. Meanwhile, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten says his values and priorities are education, health and jobs, rather than opinion polls.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NEWSPOLL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS

Reducing taxation and improving health benefits are major issues

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 19-Feb-18

A special Roy Morgan SMS survey, which was carried out from 9-12 February, shows that 22% of Australian electors mentioned Taxation issues, including lower taxes and tax reform, as the leading issue the Federal Government could address that would most benefit electors and their families. This is unchanged since the last time this question was asked in May 2010. A further 17% of electors mention Health issues, including private health insurance and Medicare/bulk billing (down 1% from May 2010), and an unchanged 13% mention Social welfare and the aged. Two issues now mentioned by 12% of electors are Quality of government/politicians and Reducing utilities/electricity/gas prices. Analysis of issues by voting intention shows that L-NP supporters (33%) are far more likely to mention Taxation-related issues than ALP supporters (24%). In contrast, ALP supporters (11%) are more concerned with general health issues than L-NP supporters (5%).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Cynical voters struggle to believe official unemployment figures

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Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 2 : 2-Feb-18

Australia’s official unemployment rate fell from 5.7 per cent to 5.5 per cent in 2017, but research by Roy Morgan shows that nearly 60 per cent of Australians think the jobless rate is much higher. The survey found that people in South Australia and Queensland in particular believe that their state’s real unemployment rate is significantly higher than official figures suggest. Roy Morgan estimates that the real unemployment rate is around 10 per cent, and executive director Gary Morgan says politicians, the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the general public know that the official figures are "nonsense".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, SA BEST, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY