PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

Wentworth by-election means death of cheap robo-polling & leaked private party polls!

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Original article by Gary Morgan, Michele Levine, Julian McCrann
Morgan Poll Analysis – Page: Online : 25-Oct-18

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine two days before the Wentworth by-election on Sky News’ new political show "Conroy & Kroger" when asked why she was so critical of cheap polls said: "They may be cheaper, but I can’t really see any point in doing a poll that is going to get the wrong answer. And this is not, as somebody was saying earlier, about people not wanting to tell the truth or in fact lying when they get polled, it’s not that at all, it’s just that these modern new silly ways of polling which are either robo-polls or telephone polls which only get a small proportion of the population or online polls with commercial panels of people who volunteer to be part of it, they only get a really small piece of the population." A stunning example is provided by the Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll results which last week was reported on by Carly Earl for the Guardian prior to the Wentworth by-election. The Greenpeace ReachTel robo-poll primary vote predictions were significantly in error for several of the leading candidates. Out by more than 10% for Liberal Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray and out by more than 3% for the two Independent candidates Kerryn Phelps and Licia Heath. The ReachTel robo-poll’s prediction for the critical two candidate preferred result was even further out. Not only did the two-candidate preferred result compound the error made by being over 10% out on the primary vote for Liberal candidate Dave Sharma and ALP candidate Tim Murray but the preference flows were a further source of error and meant the poll was completely wrong when predicting the two-candidate preferred result between Phelps and Sharma. For the full analysis and video of Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s appearance on Conroy & Kroger click through here.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, GREENPEACE, REACHTEL PTY LTD, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SKY NEWS

Phelps to trounce Liberals in key seat, party polling shows

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Original article by Andrew Clennell
The Australian – Page: 1 & 5 : 17-Oct-18

Liberal Party candidate Dave Sharma seems set to lose the Wentworth by-election on 21 October, according to the party’s latest polling. It shows that independent candidate Kerryn Phelps leads Sharma 55-45 on a two-party-preferred basis. The Liberals’ previous polling in Wentworth showed that Sharma had a narrow lead over Phelps. Meanwhile, Phelps is under scrutiny for allegedly breaching electoral laws by making election-related social media posts without the required authorisation.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Liberal leadership fight boosts ALP support, but ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence also up after Liberal leadership resolved

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 29-Aug-18

The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the L-NP down 3.5% to 46% following a week of leadership upheaval for the Federal Liberal Party, boosting ALP support by 3.5% to 54% on a two-party preferred basis according to interviewing conducted on the weekend of August 25/26 with 821 electors. The two Morgan Polls taken over the past week show that the former Malcolm Turnbull-led L-NP Government was within striking distance of the ALP on the weekend before Turnbull was ousted as Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader. The L-NP was on 49.5% compared with 50.5% for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis on the weekend of August 18/19, according to interviewing conducted with 886 electors. Although leadership tensions in a party usually undermine support for that party and undermine confidence, the leadership upheaval has not negatively impacted on broader Consumer Confidence – ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has increased 2.4pts to 116.5. Interviewing for Consumer Confidence was taken entirely after the resolution of the Liberal leadership contest and Scott Morrison being sworn in as Australia’s 30th Prime Minister. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine notes that Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged by 11pts on the weekend to 84 with only 33.5% (down 6.5%) of Australians saying Australia is "heading in the right direction". She adds that it is a rare occurrence that Consumer Confidence and Government Confidence move in such different directions; however, the leadership issues at the top of the Government are a clear catalyst on this occasion.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Australians worried about Government’s instability, favouritism towards big business and climate change if an L-NP Government is re-elected. Concerns if the ALP is elected to Government centre on union influence, poor economic management and policies on immigration and refugees

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-18

Australians have responded to the unprecedented leadership instability at the head of the Turnbull Government by outlining their concerns about a re-elected L-NP Government and their worries about an ALP Government should it be elected at the next Federal Election – which could be held at any time between now and May 2019. Australians are most concerned about the continuing instability that would impact on a re-elected L-NP Government while the L-NP’s perceived favouritism towards "big business", and policies towards climate change and refugees and immigration are pressing concerns. If an ALP Government were elected at the next Federal Election Australians are worried about the perceived strong union influence on a Bill Shorten-led Government as well as the ALP’s poor economic management abilities, reckless spending and concerns from both ALP & L-NP supporters about the ALP’s policies towards immigration and refugees. For full details, including verbatim responses from Australian electors, click through.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Latest Morgan Poll shows Julie Bishop (64%) easily preferred as Prime Minister to Bill Shorten (36%)

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Aug-18

Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop has easily the strongest performance against Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in a head-to-head matchup while fellow leadership aspirant Scott Morrison is in a virtual "dead-heat" with Shorten. Julie Bishop (64%) clearly leads Bill Shorten (36%) while Bill Shorten (50.5%) and Scott Morrison (49.5%) can barely be separated according to a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 2,000 Australian electors on Thursday. An earlier SMS Morgan Poll showed PM Malcolm Turnbull (54%) ahead of Shorten (46%) while Shorten (62%) easily leads Peter Dutton (38%). Bishop’s strong performance in a head-to-head match-up with Shorten shows that if the Liberal Party wants its best chance of winning the next Federal Election Julie Bishop is the smart choice to lead the party. Follow this link to see the latest Morgan Poll results with interview between Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine and ABC TV’s Matter of Fact with Stan Grant to follow.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Snap Morgan Poll shows electors prefer Turnbull to Shorten but Shorten preferred to Dutton

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Aug-18

A special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted with a cross-section of more than 1,250 Australian electors on August 22 shows that Malcolm Turnbull (52%) is seen as the Better Prime Minister compared to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (44.5%), while a further 3.5% cannot say. However, Bill Shorten (59%) is clearly seen as the Better PM compared to Liberal Party leadership challenger Peter Dutton (36.5%), while a further 4.5% cannot say. Analysis by gender shows that 53% of men regard Turnbull as the Better PM, a lead of 10% over Shorten (43%); Turnbull has a lead of 5% as Better PM among women (51%, compared with 46% for Shorten). Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that if the Liberal Party chose to elect Peter Dutton as the new Liberal Party Leader they would be setting Bill Shorten and the ALP on course for victory at the next Federal Election. She notes that Dutton is not significantly stronger in his home State of Queensland than any other state; just 40% of electors in Queensland see Dutton as the Better PM, while 53% say Shorten would be the Better PM.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Budget blitz: PM signs off on key measures early

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Original article by Simon Benson, Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 10-Apr-18

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull still believes that he can win the next federal election, despite consistently underperforming in public opinion polls. He argues that polling is not always reliable, and notes that most polls suggest that the outcome of the next election will be very close. Meanwhile, senior government sources have indicated that Turnbull has endorsed the majority of policy initiatives in the May 2018 Budget, including personal income tax cuts. There had been dissent between Turnbull and his Cabinet colleagues regarding measures in the 2017 Budget.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NEWSPOLL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HOME AFFAIRS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND TRADE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING

This week’s YouGov Galaxy Newspoll is very different to the Newspoll when Tony Abbott was Prime Minister -Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 10-Apr-18

Although the media has managed to work itself into a ‘frenzy’ in recent days over the latest Newspoll – which was released this week showing the ALP in front of the L-NP again for the 30th straight week – the facts are that today’s ‘YouGov Galaxy Newspoll’ is conducted very differently to the original Newspoll which current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull used to oust former Prime Minister Tony Abbott less than three years ago. Today’s ‘YouGov Galaxy Newspoll’ are ‘robo-polls’ with recorded questions using Australian landlines, then these results are ‘topped-up’ with ‘online’ polling. Whereas the 30 Newspolls that spelled the end of Tony Abbott were conducted using traditional personal telephone polling. Galaxy Research was awarded the Newspoll contract in July 2015, and was bought by UK polling organisation YouGov in December 2017. YouGov is famous for calling Brexit for the ‘Remainers’ on Brexit polling day June 23, 2016. Remain 52% cf. Leave 48% – ironically the same result ‘YouGov Galaxy Newspoll’ says the ALP today leads the L-NP. To paraphrase a rather famous politician – ‘Fake News’. The latest Morgan Poll released last Friday shows the next Federal Election is ‘too close to call’ with the ALP on 51% cf. L-NP 49%. This week’s latest Newspoll results analysed by Poll Bludger are available to view here – memories are short – Newspoll under-estimated the Liberal vote in the recent South Australia election by 4%!

CORPORATES
NEWSPOLL, YOUGOV LIMITED, GALAXY RESEARCH PTY LTD, MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Federal Election still too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 9-Apr-18

The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the ALP unchanged at 51%, narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis. The Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of March 24/25 and March 31/April 1, 2018 with 1,477 electors. Primary support for the L-NP is at 38.5%, down 1.5% from the previous fortnight and just ahead of the ALP on 37.5%, up 2%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 11% while support for One Nation dropped 0.5% to 3%. Support for Independents/ Others was up 1% to 10% with 6% of electors undecided. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts to 103. Roy Morgan’s executive chairman Gary Morgan says that if an election were called today it would be too close to call, with the performance of the respective parties in the campaign the key to determining who would win.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, ONE NATION PARTY

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says Malcolm Turnbull is still a big chance to win the next Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 28-Mar-18

Poll watchers will have noticed Morgan Polls have not been publicised regularly. Morgan Polls are still conducted weekly, and results are available for subscription. The Morgan Poll has been published this week to restore balance to the political agenda – which is ‘today’ dominated by Newspoll and the call by many for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to resign. Two points are vital: Newspoll is not infallible – the accuracy of Newspoll was shown up by the South Australian Election at which Newspoll were out by 4% predicting a Liberal Party primary vote of 34% when the Liberals actually received 38% of the primary vote. Newspoll also predicted an ALP primary vote of 31%, ALP actually received 31.8%; SA Best primary vote of 17%, SA Best actually received 14.2%, Greens primary vote of 8%, Greens actually received 6.7%; Others primary vote of 10%, Others actually received 8.3%. The Federal vote can change. The latest Morgan Poll shows the two major parties neck and neck (ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%) and if an election were held today the outcome would be too close to call.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, NEWSPOLL, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, SA-BEST, AUSTRALIAN GREENS