PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

Forget America, the public are voting with their pockets

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Original article by Harold Mitchell
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 21 : 25-Nov-16

Australian economist Ross Garnaut warned in a 2013 book that the nation was poised to become an "unlucky country". However, data from Roy Morgan Research highlights the overall health of the domestic economy. The research also shows that Australians are becoming more positive about globalisation, retailers are upbeat about their outlook and consumers are spending more on leisure and entertainment. Meanwhile, rising support for the Federal Opposition in the Morgan poll shows that more Australians believe that the Government is taking the nation in the wrong direction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 11-Oct-16

An SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention, which was carried out from 30 September to 2 October 2016, has found that support for the L-NP Government in New South Wales has fallen by two per cent to 48.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while Mike Baird’s rating as "Better Premier" has fallen by 3.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent. In Victoria, support for the ALP Government has risen by one per cent to 56.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while Daniel Andrews’ rating as "Better Premier" is unchanged at 59 per cent. In Western Australia, support for the L-NP Government has fallen by 1.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, and Colin Barnett’s rating as "Better Premier" has fallen by two per cent to 41 per cent just five months before the state election in March 2017.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Polling Methodology

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Sep-16

Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine appears on podcast "The Daily" to discuss how public opinion polls are carried out, in the wake of an online Essential poll which showed that 49 per cent of Australians support a ban on Muslim immigration. Levine notes that the Essential poll uses an online panel, whereas Roy Morgan uses face-to-face interviews and telephone surveys in order to ensure that its polls represent an accurate cross-section of Australians. She adds that a Roy Morgan poll in 2015 found that just 28 per cent of Australians opposed Muslim immigration.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, ESSENTIAL RESEARCH

Now ‘too close to call’ in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 9-Sep-16

In NSW the Baird Government has now lost its strong lead: L-NP 50.5% (down 3%) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 3%) and in WA the Mark McGowan-led ALP Opposition now has the lead heading towards next year’s WA State Election: ALP 51% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 49% (down 2%). In Victoria support for the Andrews Government is virtually unchanged with two-party support: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% while in Queensland support for the ALP 50% (unchanged) is level with the L-NP 50% (unchanged). This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in August with a representative cross-section of 5,490 Australian electors.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

TNS and Opinium (& Boris Johnson) big winners out of UK’s ‘Brexit’ Referendum

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-16

The majority of pollsters predicting the result of the UK’s referendum on whether to remain a member of the European Union got the result wrong with their final polls released in the week before the referendum. The final result shows that 51.9 per cent of Britons opted to leave the EU, while 48.1 per cent wanted to remain in the EU. This was a close result, but of the six polls released on the day before the referendum only two correctly predicted that the majority of Britons would vote for so-called ‘Brexit’. TNS and Opinium produced poll results of 51 per cent for Leave and 49 per cent for Remain when those who were undecided or not voting are excluded. Both of these polls were conducted online. Of the four polls that predicted a victory for Remain, two were conducted online and two were conducted via telephone. The final results of the referendum show that using a methodology that provides the most accurate possible measure of a population’s key demographics – which includes polling people who may not be easily reached by traditional polling methods such as the landline telephone – is the key to producing an accurate representation of the people’s feelings on a matter. Roy Morgan believes that its multi-mode polling methodology that utilises an addressed based probability sample including face-to-face interviewing, landline telephones and mobile telephones, and can incorporate online polling as well, is the best way to provide an accurate representation of how the population thinks about a given matter.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, TNS, OPINIUM

‘Honest Government’ and ‘Managing the Economy’ the biggest issues in Higgins, Indi, Mayo & Menzies

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 21-Jun-16

A Snap SMS Roy Morgan ‘issues’ survey has found that ‘Honest Government’ (30 per cent) and ‘Managing the Economy’ (24 per cent) are regarded as the key issues for electors in the four key seats of Higgins, Indi, Mayo and Menzies two weeks before the 2016 Federal Election. The electorates’ ranking of issues today are very different than those found by a Roy Morgan ‘issues’ survey conducted over the 30 months since the last Federal Election in September 2013. Over the period before the Federal Election was called the main issues in the electorates were ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ (31 per cent), ‘Improving health services and hospitals’ (27 per cent), ‘Managing the economy’ (23 per cent) and ‘Improving education’ (20 per cent). Electors were shown a list of issues and asked: "Which three issues are most important to you".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM

Melbourne’s Batman set to turn Green at Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 20-Jun-16

Roy Morgan’s 2016 seat-by-seat analysis of the Greens’ 20 best performing electorates at the 2013 Federal Election shows that the Greens will win the Inner Melbourne electorate of Batman from the incumbent David Feeney (Australian Labor Party) and the Greens’ one sitting Member, Adam Bandt, will retain his seat of Melbourne. Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and 11-12 June 2016. Of the doubtful Labor seats it appears the Victorian seat of Wills has been saved following Labor’s preference swapping deal with the Liberal Party. In a seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of Grayndler in Sydney held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese – voting is similar to the 2013 election. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals. Albanese is likely to retain his seat. In Melbourne Ports in 2013, Labor’s Michael Danby was outvoted by the Liberals but retained the seat because of Greens preferences. A switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens could see the seat fall to the Greens, although Labor (33 per cent) retains a significant primary vote lead over the Greens (26 per cent) in Melbourne Ports.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Election now too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%. Minor Parties ‘won’ last night’s Leaders’ debate.

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 30-May-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by 1.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 21-22 and 28-29 May 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has risen by one to 37.5 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 2.5 points to 102. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan notes that support for the minor parties is at a massive 30 per cent (up 8.9 per cent from the 2013 Federal Election), and support for the minor parties will only rise after the uninspiring Leader’s debate. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull did not explain how the unemployed and under-employed (18.1 per cent, or 2.322 million) will get jobs and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten gave no indication on how a Labor Government would create more private sector jobs by massive increases in public sector spending. However, Turnbull and Shorten still have time to present believable policies which tackle Australia’s booming "cash economy" and reduce real unemployment and under-employment.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, FAMILY FIRST PARTY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Turnbull is winning despite polls

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 24-May-16

Strategists for both the Liberal-National Coalition and the Australian Labor Party agree that the outcome of the federal election on 2 July 2016 remains too close to call. Although most public opinion polls suggest that Labor will win the election, analysis shows that the Coalition would in fact win if the election were held now, as the swing to Labor has not been sufficient in the seats it needs to win in order to take office. The Coalition won the 2013 election with 53.5 per cent of the vote on a two-party preferred basis.

CORPORATES
LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, IPSOS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, REACHTEL PTY LTD, NEWSPOLL, LABOUR PARTY (GREAT BRITAIN), LIBERAL PARTY OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Economic Issues the key to the Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 20-May-16

A special Roy Morgan telephone survey, which was carried out on 4-5 May 2016, has found that 42 per cent of Australians aged 14+ regard Economic and Financial Issues as the most important set of problems facing the nation. This has increased by four per cent since October 2015. The survey also shows that 13 per cent of Australians rate Religion/Immigration/Human Rights Issues as the biggest problems facing the country (down three per cent). Meanwhile, 25 per cent of Australians identified Environmental Issues as the biggest problems facing the world (up four per cent).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED