PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – AUSTRALIA

Marriage poll nearly 80% done

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Original article by Adam Gartrell
The Age – Page: 1 : 3-Oct-17

Polling undertaken on behalf of the Equality Campaign has found that 77 per cent of Australian electors have already voted in the postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage. The survey of 1,000 people shows that 69 per cent of electors aged 18-24 have returned their survey form, while 17 per cent of people in this age group have filled in their form but have yet to return it. The majority of young people are expected to vote in favour of same-sex marriage. Some 80 per cent of people aged 65+ have also returned their survey form; support for the traditional view of marriage is expected to be high among this age group.

CORPORATES
THE EQUALITY CAMPAIGN, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN CHRISTIAN LOBBY, SKY NEWS, REACHTEL PTY LTD

Personal approvals don’t matter, says pollster Gary Morgan

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Original article by Luke Henriques Gomes
The New Daily – Page: Online : 14-Sep-17

Pollster Gary Morgan says leadership approval ratings do not necessarily translate into electoral success. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is performing poorly against Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in personal approval polls, despite Labor being ahead of the government in polling. Morgan, the executive chairman of Roy Morgan Research, cites examples such as Margaret Thatcher and Helen Clark of politicians who enjoyed electoral success despite low approval ratings. He says voters focus on issues important to them, rather than on political party leaders. Roy Morgan each week surveys face to face an Australian wide cross section of about 1,000 people aged 14 and over. Voting intention of electors is available to subscribers and clients.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION LIMITED, NEWSPOLL, IPSOS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ

Australians split down the middle on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon; as expected Australians want a peaceful diplomatic solution to North Korean stand-off

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

A special snap SMS Morgan Poll taken on 14 September 2017 shows that Australians are evenly split on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon: 51% say it is either "Fairly unlikely" (33%) or "Very unlikely" (18%) to do so, while 49% say it is "Fairly likely" (33%) or "Very likely" (16%) to do so. Meanwhile, 81% of Australians want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution, and only 19% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working and a military one is needed. Analysing the results by voting preference shows supporters of the major parties are also split down the middle on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon, and large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution. Roy Morgan Research CEO Gary Morgan says the consensus across political lines also extends across both genders, all age groups and around all of Australia’s States. However, the snap SMS Morgan Poll was taken before North Korea’s latest provocation when the regime of Kim Jong-Un fired a ballistic missile nearly 4,000km eastward across the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

$1m poll could do job of $122m plebiscite

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Original article by Andrew Tillett
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 9-Aug-17

Pollster John Scales of JWS Research has questioned the cost of the Federal Government’s proposed postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage. Scales argues that the estimated cost of $A122m is excessive, and his firm could poll 1,000 people in each federal electorate with a margin of error of 3.1 per cent, and at a cost of less than $A1.1m. Scales notes that postal votes have similar limitations to public opinion polls, adding that there was a response rate of just 47 per cent for Australia’s last postal vote in 1997.

CORPORATES
JWS RESEARCH PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, AUSTRALIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION

Forget America, the public are voting with their pockets

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Original article by Harold Mitchell
The Sydney Morning Herald – Page: 21 : 25-Nov-16

Australian economist Ross Garnaut warned in a 2013 book that the nation was poised to become an "unlucky country". However, data from Roy Morgan Research highlights the overall health of the domestic economy. The research also shows that Australians are becoming more positive about globalisation, retailers are upbeat about their outlook and consumers are spending more on leisure and entertainment. Meanwhile, rising support for the Federal Opposition in the Morgan poll shows that more Australians believe that the Government is taking the nation in the wrong direction.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 11-Oct-16

An SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention, which was carried out from 30 September to 2 October 2016, has found that support for the L-NP Government in New South Wales has fallen by two per cent to 48.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while Mike Baird’s rating as "Better Premier" has fallen by 3.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent. In Victoria, support for the ALP Government has risen by one per cent to 56.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, while Daniel Andrews’ rating as "Better Premier" is unchanged at 59 per cent. In Western Australia, support for the L-NP Government has fallen by 1.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, and Colin Barnett’s rating as "Better Premier" has fallen by two per cent to 41 per cent just five months before the state election in March 2017.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Polling Methodology

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 23-Sep-16

Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine appears on podcast "The Daily" to discuss how public opinion polls are carried out, in the wake of an online Essential poll which showed that 49 per cent of Australians support a ban on Muslim immigration. Levine notes that the Essential poll uses an online panel, whereas Roy Morgan uses face-to-face interviews and telephone surveys in order to ensure that its polls represent an accurate cross-section of Australians. She adds that a Roy Morgan poll in 2015 found that just 28 per cent of Australians opposed Muslim immigration.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, MORGAN POLL, ESSENTIAL RESEARCH

Now ‘too close to call’ in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 9-Sep-16

In NSW the Baird Government has now lost its strong lead: L-NP 50.5% (down 3%) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 3%) and in WA the Mark McGowan-led ALP Opposition now has the lead heading towards next year’s WA State Election: ALP 51% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 49% (down 2%). In Victoria support for the Andrews Government is virtually unchanged with two-party support: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5% while in Queensland support for the ALP 50% (unchanged) is level with the L-NP 50% (unchanged). This SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in August with a representative cross-section of 5,490 Australian electors.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

TNS and Opinium (& Boris Johnson) big winners out of UK’s ‘Brexit’ Referendum

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 24-Jun-16

The majority of pollsters predicting the result of the UK’s referendum on whether to remain a member of the European Union got the result wrong with their final polls released in the week before the referendum. The final result shows that 51.9 per cent of Britons opted to leave the EU, while 48.1 per cent wanted to remain in the EU. This was a close result, but of the six polls released on the day before the referendum only two correctly predicted that the majority of Britons would vote for so-called ‘Brexit’. TNS and Opinium produced poll results of 51 per cent for Leave and 49 per cent for Remain when those who were undecided or not voting are excluded. Both of these polls were conducted online. Of the four polls that predicted a victory for Remain, two were conducted online and two were conducted via telephone. The final results of the referendum show that using a methodology that provides the most accurate possible measure of a population’s key demographics – which includes polling people who may not be easily reached by traditional polling methods such as the landline telephone – is the key to producing an accurate representation of the people’s feelings on a matter. Roy Morgan believes that its multi-mode polling methodology that utilises an addressed based probability sample including face-to-face interviewing, landline telephones and mobile telephones, and can incorporate online polling as well, is the best way to provide an accurate representation of how the population thinks about a given matter.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, TNS, OPINIUM

‘Honest Government’ and ‘Managing the Economy’ the biggest issues in Higgins, Indi, Mayo & Menzies

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 21-Jun-16

A Snap SMS Roy Morgan ‘issues’ survey has found that ‘Honest Government’ (30 per cent) and ‘Managing the Economy’ (24 per cent) are regarded as the key issues for electors in the four key seats of Higgins, Indi, Mayo and Menzies two weeks before the 2016 Federal Election. The electorates’ ranking of issues today are very different than those found by a Roy Morgan ‘issues’ survey conducted over the 30 months since the last Federal Election in September 2013. Over the period before the Federal Election was called the main issues in the electorates were ‘Keeping day-to-day living costs down’ (31 per cent), ‘Improving health services and hospitals’ (27 per cent), ‘Managing the economy’ (23 per cent) and ‘Improving education’ (20 per cent). Electors were shown a list of issues and asked: "Which three issues are most important to you".

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, NICK XENOPHON TEAM