ALP & L-NP now too close to call as electors react to Government forcing Senate voting changes last week as Turnbull today recalls Parliament in April for Double Dissolution Election showdown

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 21-Mar-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has fallen by 3.5 per cent to 49.5 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 12-13 and 19-20 March 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen by three per cent to 40 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen by 1.5 points to 103.5. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that to reduce Australia’s "real" level of unemployment and under-employment the Government must introduce comprehensive industrial relations reform that cuts "red tape" such as lowering or eliminating excessive penalty rates for working on weekends and public holidays and which would lead to higher productivity and wages across the whole workforce. The Government must also make an effort to deal with Australia’s large "cash economy" that undercuts legitimate businesses and facilitates massive tax avoidance.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Polling the polls: the ultimate guide to the growing sport of political polling

Original article by Edmund Tadros
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 15-Mar-16

The six main public opinion polls that are currently produced in Australia use a range of methodologies. Roy Morgan Research’s Morgan Poll uses a combination of face-to-face and SMS surveys, which can be supplemented with additional polling via mobile and landline if necessary. In contrast, ReachTEL uses so-called robo-polling, while Galaxy uses a combination of robo-polling and online surveys for both its own polls and the Newspoll, which it has produced for "The Australian" since mid-2015. The Fairfax/Ipsos poll uses both telephone and mobile interviews, while the Essential poll uses an online survey panel.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, REACHTEL PTY LTD, GALAXY RESEARCH PTY LTD, NEWSPOLL, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, IPSOS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ESSENTIAL MEDIA COMMUNICATIONS PTY LTD, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, UMR RESEARCH PTY LTD, HAWKER BRITTON PTY LTD, COLMAR BRUNTON SOCIAL RESEARCH PTY LTD, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, THE NIELSEN COMPANY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD

Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged: L-NP 53% maintain clear 2PP lead over ALP 47% as Parliament debates Senate reform

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 7-Mar-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by 0.5 per cent to 53 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 27-28 February and 5-6 March 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen by 0.5 per cent to 43 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by three points to 102. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says this week’s strong result for the L-NP comes after a good week for the Australian economy. GDP for the December 2015 quarter came in above expectations at 0.6 per cent, for an annual GDP growth rate of three per cent. In addition, last week the All Ordinaries Index increased by 4.2 per cent to close at 5,151.10 on Friday and the Australian dollar increased to over $US0.74- its highest since July 2015.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM

Not your mother’s Newspoll: robo-poll not quite what it seems

Original article by Edmund Tadros
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 23-Feb-16

The latest Morgan Poll, which uses both face-to-face and SMS interviews, has found that support for the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis is steady at 52.5 per cent. In contrast, the latest Newspoll suggests that support for the Coalition and the Australian Labor Party is tied at 50 per cent apiece. However, the Newspoll is now conducted by Galaxy Research, which uses a combination of automated "robo-polling" and online surveys rather than telephone surveys.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NEWSPOLL, GALAXY RESEARCH PTY LTD, IPSOS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, MACQUARIE UNIVERSITY, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Federal Voting Intention unchanged: L-NP 52.5% maintain clear 2PP lead over ALP 47.5%

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 22-Feb-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis is steady at 52.5 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 13-14 and 20-21 February 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote is unchanged at 43.5 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 7.5 points to 105. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison need to outline the policies and reforms they will stake this Government on now rather than waiting until Morrison delivers his first Federal Budget in May or when Turnbull decides to call an election.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

ALP narrows gap following GST discussions – ALP up 2.5% to 47.5% cf. L-NP down 2.5% to 52.5%

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 9-Feb-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has fallen by 2.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 30-31 January and 6-7 February 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote is unchanged at 43.5 per cent, while the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 0.5 points to 112.5. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that arguing about what sort of taxation reforms the Turnbull Government should undertake such as increasing the GST is pointless as it completely ignores the booming "cash economy", which is especially concentrated in personal services, building and construction, retail and hospitality. Instead of arguing about whether to increase the tax burden on all Australians, the Government should be promoting a significant restructuring of Australia’s costly and restrictive industrial relations laws. The "red tape" that surrounds working conditions in Australia – including high weekend and public holiday penalty rates – discourages businesses from employing more people and contributing to a growing and more productive economy.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) increases support in South Australia while L-NP well in front in NSW and ALP holds solid lead in Victoria

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 3-Feb-16

An SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention, which was carried out from 29 January to 1 February 2016, has found that support for South Australia’s L-NP Opposition has fallen by one per cent to 53 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. Meanwhile, 20.5 per cent of the state’s electors support the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), an increase of 2.5 per cent since early December 2015. In Victoria, support for the ALP Government on a two-party preferred basis is steady at 53.5 per cent, while Daniel Andrews’ rating as "Better Premier" has fallen by 1.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Support for the L-NP Government in New South Wales has fallen by one per cent to 59.5 per cent, and Mike Baird’s rating as "Better Premier" has eased 0.5 per cent to 72 per cent.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

L-NP lead over ALP narrows – now 55% (down 1%) cf. 45% (up 1%). Nick Xenophon outpolls Labor in South Australia – again.

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 25-Jan-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has fallen by one per cent to 55 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 16-17 and 23-24 January 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen by 3.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent, and the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by 3.5 points to 113. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that former prime minister Tony Abbott’s decision to stand again for his seat of Warringah at this year’s Federal Election will not be appreciated by current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. It has the potential to derail the Liberal Party in the same way as Kevin Rudd did for Labor. Many believe that Abbott "wasted" his two years as prime minister and was unable to successfully implement any meaningful reforms to improve business conditions to the degree he had promised prior to winning the 2013 Federal Election. As PM Abbott showed no interest in reforming Australia’s out-dated and costly industrial relations laws. His legacy will only be truly apparent this year as the end of the mining boom and an uncertain global economic outlook lead to more Australians becoming unemployed.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

L-NP lead down over ALP – now 56% (down 1.5%) cf. 44% (up 1.5%) although L-NP would still win Federal Election easily

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 11-Jan-16

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has fallen by 1.5 per cent to 56 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 2-3 and 9-1 January 2016, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has fallen by one per cent to 47 per cent, but the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen by 1.5 points to 116.5. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says that although the latest Morgan Poll shows that the L-NP Government continues to enjoy widespread support, the sharp falls on the Australian sharemarket last week show that the Australian economy faces a tough year as the Chinese economy slows and the Australian mining industry is heavily impacted by falling commodities prices across the board. Apart from overseas concerns the main issue for the Government as it faces re-election this year is to outline a credible plan to tackle Australia’s high real unemployment rate.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

L-NP increases lead over ALP – now 57.5% cf. 42.5%; biggest lead for Coalition since being elected in 2013

Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 15-Dec-15

A multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention has found that support for Australia’s ruling Liberal-National Coalition on a two-party preferred basis has risen by 1.5 per cent to 57.5 per cent. The poll, which was carried out on the weekends of 5-6 and 12-13 December 2015, also shows that the Coalition’s primary vote has risen by 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent, but the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen by seven points to 115. Roy Morgan Research executive chairman Gary Morgan says the scale of the Budget blowout in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook shows that the Turnbull Government faces a challenging 12 months as it attempts to win a mandate in its own right at the 2016 Federal Election whilst also steering the Australian economy through a slowing economy caused by the end of the long-running commodities boom.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, KATTER’S AUSTRALIAN PARTY, PALMER UNITED PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY