NAB cuts house price forecasts for two years

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 13-Jul-18

National Australia Bank has revised its housing price forecasts for 2018 and 2019. The bank now expects house prices to fall by 1.8 per cent in 2018, compared to the 0.8 per cent decline it had forecast in April. NAB also predicts that the price of detached dwellings will fall by 0.1 per cent in 2019, having previously forecast an 0.8 per cent rise. It has also reported that property investor confidence has declined to a two-year low, while a recent ANZ/Property Council survey reported that the availability of housing finance has slumped over the past three months.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

House prices are falling faster than expected

Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 3-Jul-18

The ANZ Bank predicted in March that Australian house prices would rise by two per cent over the course of 2018, but it now expects a decline of four per cent. The bank also expects house prices to fall by two per cent in 2019. National Australia Bank is also more pessimistic about the housing market than it was in March, while Paul Dale of Capital Economics notes that the banking royal commission has already seen banks tighten their lending standards. He says house prices could potentially fall by about five per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL, LAZARD PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Sydney prices end 2017-18 down 5pc

Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 2-Jul-18

Figures to be released by Corelogic on 2 July are expected to show that Sydney house prices fell by around five per cent in the 2017-18 financial year. Melbourne house prices are tipped to have remained almost flat, while dwelling values in the five main capital city markets are expected to have declined by nearly two per cent. Preliminary figures indicate that the national auction clearance rate for the weekend of 30 June-1 July was 56.7 per cent, compared with a clearance rate of 67.3 per cent for the corresponding period in 2017.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BELLE PROPERTY PTY LTD

End in sight for housing slump

Original article by Turi Condon
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Jun-18

Data from the CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Home Value Index shows that house prices across Australia are expected to fall by 0.5 per cent in 2018, following 8.6 per cent growth in 2017. House prices in Sydney will fall by almost five per cent in 2018, although a rebound is expected in 2019. Meanwhile, a 1.5 per cent downturn in Melbourne house is expected in 2018, with prices in Perth forecast to fall by 0.5 per cent. However, house prices in Brisbane will rise by 1.4 per cent.

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CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Housing outlook dims amid forecasts of falling prices

Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 20-Jun-18

The ANZ Bank expects house prices in Melbourne and Sydney to fall around 10 per cent by the end of 2019. Senior economist Daniel Gradwell adds that a fall of about four per cent nationally is now expected in 2018, followed by a two per cent decline in 2019. He notes that ANZ had previously forecast a modest rise in house prices in both years. Gradwell also says the Reserve Bank is likely to leave the cash rate on hold until the second half of 2019 due to the outlook for the housing market.

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AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Labor tax plan would hit home prices

Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 12-Jun-18

RiskWise Property Research and Wargent Advisory have modelled the possible impact of Labor’s proposed changes to negative gearing on house prices. They found that the changes could lead to house price falls of up to 12 per cent in some parts of Australia, including Townsville and Mackay. House prices in Sydney and Melbourne could fall by nine per cent. With house prices already shaky, the property sector is urging Labor to scrap its plans. However, shadow treasurer Chris Bowen has rejected this suggestion.

CORPORATES
RISKWISE PROPERTY RESEARCH, WARDENT ADVISORY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

House price tumble steeper than tipped

Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 2 : 7-Jun-18

The ANZ Bank’s latest housing market report notes that the national auction clearance rate averaged 58 per cent in May, compared with 66 per cent in February. ANZ warns that the downturn means house prices may not rebound as strongly as the bank had previously forecast. ANZ now expects the downturn in house prices to be larger than forecast, noting that the slowdown has gathered pace in recent months. Housing Industry ­Association data also highlights the decline in sales of new homes in 2018.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED

Sydney market is 45pc overvalued

Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 8-May-18

SQM Research had forecast in October that Sydney house prices would rise by between four and eight per cent in 2018. However, it now predicts that house prices could fall by as much as four per cent. SQM now expects house prices in Melbourne to decline by up to three per cent in 2018, compared to its previous forecast for growth between seven and 12 per cent. SQM contends that Sydney’s housing market is overvalued by around 45 per cent.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Sydney, Melbourne prices to fall 5pc

Original article by Duncan Hughes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 10-Apr-18

AMP Capital’s Shane Oliver forecasts that the median house price in both Melbourne and Sydney will decline by around five per cent in 2018. He expects a further downturn in house prices in 2019, although he adds that factors such as population growth and stricter lending standards will prevent a nationwide price crash. Meanwhile, analysis by valuer Herron Todd White suggests that Melbourne is the only mainland capital where apartment prices have not yet peaked.

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AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, HERRON TODD WHITE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, THE REAL ESTATE INSTITUTE OF NEW SOUTH WALES

APRA relaxes as home boom ends

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 22 : 2-Mar-18

Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has told a Senate committee that the slowing residential property market may reduce the need to cap annual growth in lending to investors. The latest data shows that there has been a sharp fall in lending to investors, while credit growth across the economy has also slowed. However, a number of lenders have recently moved to reduce the interest rates on their interest-only investment loans. Morgan Stanley forecasts a further slowdown in both credit growth and the housing market.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, ING BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, VIRGIN MONEY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ADELAIDE BANK, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION