REAL ESTATE – PRICES – AUSTRALIA

Housing price rises to halve, says NAB

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 6 : 14-Jul-17

National Australia Bank forecasts that house prices in the nation’s capital cities will rise by just five per cent in 2017, compared with growth of 11.6 per cent in 2016. NAB also expects growth in apartment prices to fall from 5.9 per cent in 2016 to three per cent. Chief economist Alan Oster says growth in residential property prices will be constrained by factors such as low growth in wages, the high level of dwelling construction and measures aimed at curbing foreign investment in the housing market.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC

Property price growth set to halve

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Original article by Matthew Cranston, Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 30 : 13-Jul-17

A new survey of property industry professionals shows that most expect a slowdown in residential property price growth in the next 12 months. The ANZ/Property Council of Australia index of house price growth expectations has fallen from 20.2 points to 4.3 points. The anticipated slowdown is particularly acute in Sydney, with house price growth expectations falling from 29.6 points to 1.7 points. The survey also shows that property professionals are bearish about the outlook for capital growth in the retail property sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, RAY WHITE GROUP, AVENTUS PROPERTY GROUP PTY LTD, QUINTESSENTIAL EQUITY PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

House prices face turning point: HSBC

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 7-Jul-17

HSBC expects house prices in Sydney to rise by between 14 and 16 per cent in 2017, while apartment prices will rise by between 10 and 12 per cent. Growth in house and apartment prices is expected to moderate in 2018. HSBC’s forecasts for Melbourne are similar to Sydney for house prices, but it is predicting that apartment prices in Melbourne could fall by as much as three per cent in 2017 and by up to four per cent in 2018. Nationally, HSBC expects house prices to rise by between eight and 10 per cent in 2017, before rising by between three and six per cent in 2018.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Household debt hits all-time high

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Jul-17

Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio rose to a new high of 190.4 per cent in the March 2017 quarter. Treasurer Scott Morrison has indicated that rising household debt was a key factor for the Federal Government in backing new regulatory measures aimed at curbing interest-only loans for property investors. He has warned of the economic impact if the nation’s residential property market experienced a "hard landing". He adds that the Opposition’s proposed negative gearing reforms would have heightened the risk of a hard landing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

RBA worries property could spark downturn

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 21-Jun-17

The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s June 2017 monetary policy meeting show that board members are concerned about the potential impact of rising household debt and residential property prices on economic growth. Concerns were also raised that financial stability could be undermined by record low interest rates. Board members also stressed the need for continued co-operation between the central bank and other regulatory agencies, such as the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, COUNCIL OF FINANCIAL REGULATORS, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Commercial yields to tighten further: AMP

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 16-Jun-17

Opinion is divided as to whether Australia’s commercial real estate sector is heading for a major downturn. Shane Quinn of Quintessential Equity says he can foresee "carnage" if banks decide to cut back on lending, but Adam Geha, the CEO of fund manager EG, says he cannot foresee a correction in the immediate future. Geha’s comments are echoed by AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, who says a commercial property market crash looks to be unlikely.

CORPORATES
QUINTESSENTIAL EQUITY PTY LTD, EG CAPITAL PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Australia rises in house price index

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 9-Jun-17

Iceland heads Knight Frank’s latest Global House Price Index, with annualised growth of 17.8 per in the March 2017 quarter. Of the 55 countries covered by the survey, 48 recorded house price increases, with 11 posting an annualised rise of more than 10 per cent. Australia ranks 20th in the list, with strong performances in the Melbourne and Sydney housing markets helping it to achieve annual growth of 7.7 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
KNIGHT FRANK, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

REITs at risk in housing slowdown

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 25 : 1-Jun-17

Data from CoreLogic shows that residential property values across five Australian capital cities fell by 1.1 per cent in May 2017. Analysts and fund managers warn that listed real estate investment trusts could be vulnerable to a slowdown in the housing market. Stuart Cartledge of Phoenix Portfolios notes that developers that have pre-sold apartments will not be hit by any downturn, although future sales volumes may be affected.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, PHOENIX PORTFOLIOS PTY LTD, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED – ASX CWP, AVJENNINGS LIMITED – ASX AVJ, VILLA WORLD LIMITED – ASX VLW, RESOLUTION CAPITAL LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Australia ‘must deal with quite spectacular housing bubble’

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 1-Jun-17

A sharp downturn in the residential property market and an economic slowdown in China are among the biggest risks to the Australian economy, according to Willem Buiter of Citigroup. The investment bank’s global chief economist warns that the Federal Government’s plans to invest $A75bn in infrastructure over 10 years will not be sufficient to offset the impact of a property market downturn. He says the Government must take action to ensure that the housing market has a soft landing.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, BANK OF ENGLAND, WORLD BANK, EUROPEAN COMMISSION, EUROPEAN BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

RBA: road and rail a house price fix

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 5-May-17

The Australian Government’s May 2017 Budget is tipped to include funding for road and rail infrastructure, as part of its policy on housing affordability. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says improved transport infrastructure is the best way to making housing more affordable. He adds that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s move to crack down on lending to property investors is intended to provide "breathing space" to allow the supply-demand imbalance to correct itself, rather than being aimed at reining in house price growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY