UNEMPLOYMENT – AUSTRALIA

Slower wages growth pushes out RBA hike

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 18-Dec-18

The May 2018 Budget had forecast wages growth of 2.75 per cent in 2018-19, but this has been pared back to 2.5 per cent in the mid-year budget update. Wages are also expected to increase by three per cent in 2019-20, compared with previous expectations of 3.25 per cent growth. Meanwhile, growth in household consumption is also expected to be lower than projected in 2018-19, while the unemployment rate is tipped to fall further than forecast. The lower wages growth outlook may affect the timing of any change in monetary policy.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Unemployment in November is 9.5% and under-employment is 7.7%

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 7-Dec-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,294,000 Australians were employed in November 2018, up 408,000 over the past year. The increase in employment was evenly shared, with part-time employment rising by 217,000 to 4,184,000 and full-time employment rising by 191,000 to 8,110,000. The figures also show that 1,291,000 Australians (9.5% of the workforce) were unemployed in November, virtually unchanged on a year ago but with the unemployment rate down by 0.3% due to growth in the workforce. In addition, 1,042,000 Australians (7.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 64,000 in a year (down 0.7%). This is the lowest level of under-employment since September 2016. In total 2,333,000 Australians (17.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in November, a decrease of 61,000 in a year (down 1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.5% for November remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for October of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the strong growth in employment appears to be directly related to the growth in the overall Australian workforce, with the level of unemployment virtually unchanged from a year ago.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Upbeat RBA welcomes higher wages

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Original article by William McInnes, Tim Boyd
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 5-Dec-18

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe notes that the outlook for the labour market is positive and the unemployment rate likely to fall further. In a statement accompanying the central bank’s monetary policy decision, Lowe also welcomed signs of wages growth. The RBA left official interest rates on hold at 1.5 per cent for a record 28th month on 4 December, and Sally Auld of JP Morgan says the timing of a rate rise will depend on the outlook for wages. The consensus of economists polled by Bloomberg is that the cash rate will remain unchanged until at least the December 2019 quarter.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED

Strong hiring keeps jobless rate at 5pc

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Original article by Sarah Turner, Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 16-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that 42,300 full-time jobs were created in October, although the economy shed 9,500 part-time jobs. The net gain of 32,800 jobs saw the official unemployment rate remain steady at five per cent. The general consensus of economists had been that 20,000 jobs were created and the jobless rate had risen to 5.1 per cent. Meanwhile, Capital Economics has suggested that the level of full employment in the economy is now likely to be around four per cent rather than five per cent.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Unemployment unchanged at 9.4% in October

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Nov-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,194,000 Australians were employed in October 2018, up 427,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 173,000 to 7,887,000) and part-time employment (up 254,000 to 4,307,000). The figures also show that 1,265,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, an increase of 39,000 on a year ago. In addition, 1,242,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, an increase of 134,000 in a year (up 0.7%). In total 2,507,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 173,000 in a year (up 0.6%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for October remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for September of 5.0%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the persistent high level of under-employment – which is up more than 130,000 from 1.1 million a year ago – is likely to emerge as a key election issue over the next few months.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

RBA says it’s all systems go for booming economy

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 7-Nov-18

The Reserve Bank of Australia is upbeat about the outlook for the domestic economy, forecasting growth of 3.5 per cent in 2018 and 2019. The central bank also expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.75 per cent over the next two years, while inflation is forecast to rise above its target range in 2019 to an average of 2.25 per cent. Meanwhile, RBA governor Philip Lowe says growth in wages will be gradual. The RBA has again left interest rates on hold, and financial markets do not anticipate any change in monetary policy until 2020.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC

Jobs figures catch up with economic reality

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 23-Oct-18

Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in September, but in reality the official jobless figure was merely moving into alignment with "shadow" labour market indicators. Macquarie Group economist Justin Fabo expects the unemployment rate to be just below five per cent at the end of 2019, while he estimates that a full employment rate in Australia equates to a jobless rate of about 4.5 per cent. Meanwhile, the majority of "shadow" indicators, including Roy Morgan’s household survey, point towards an inflection higher in the official jobless rate.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Jobless rate at lowest in seven years

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Original article by Michael Roddan, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 19-Oct-18

Australia’s headline unemployment rate fell from 5.3 per cent to five per cent in September, while the trend rate was steady at 5.2 per cent. The Reserve Bank had forecast that the jobless rate would fall to five per cent by the end of 2020, and the latest figures have prompted speculation that it may begin tightening monetary policy sooner than expected. However, Craig James of the Commonwealth Bank does not expect it to take action while the official underemployment rate is 8.3 per cent. Meanwhile, Paul Dales of Capital Economics says a significant increase in wages may be dependent on the jobless rate falling to around four per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, NOMURA AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Unemployment down to 9.4% in September off two-year high

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Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 8-Oct-18

A Roy Morgan survey shows that 12,164,000 Australians were employed in September, up 192,000 over the past year. The increase was driven by equivalent increases in full-time employment (which was up 97,000 to 7,694,000) and part-time employment (up 95,000 to a record 4,470,000). The figures also show that 1,256,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in September, an increase of 54,000 on a year ago (up 0.3%). In addition, 1,127,000 Australians (8.4% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a fall of 169,000 in a year (down 1.4%). In total 2,383,000 Australians (17.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in September, a fall of 115,000 in a year (down 1.1%). Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for September remains substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for August of 5.3%. Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says total unemployment and under-employment in Australia has now exceeded 2 million for three straight years. As we have noted previously, the persistent high level of unemployment and under-employment is not because jobs aren’t being created, but because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Headline jobless rate hits lowest in nearly six years

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 17-Aug-18

Official data shows that Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 5.4 per cent to 5.3 per cent in July, to its lowest level since late 2012. More than 19,000 full-time jobs were created in July, offsetting the loss of 23,200 part-time positions, and the labour force participation rate eased from 65.7 per cent to 65.5 per cent. The official unemployment rate has been consistently around the 5.5 per cent level for much of the last year, but the Reserve Bank recently forecast that it will fall to five per cent in 2020.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF JOBS AND SMALL BUSINESS, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED