Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 28-Oct-26

A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of 283 electors in four key seats in Eastern Victoria – Bass, Hastings, Morwell and Pakenham – shows that One Nation and the L-NP Coalition are set to win all four seats at next month’s state election. Bass, Hastings, and Pakenham are currently held by the ALP Government, and Morwell is held by the Nationals. The Liberal Party is expected win the seat of Bass, but One Nation is in prime position to win the seats of Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham. The contest between the parties in outer suburban and regional areas – in which One Nation is performing strongly – will be key to determining the result of the election and whether there will be a majority or minority government. In many electorates the party finishing third is crucial to determining which of the top two parties go on to win the seat. The strong performance of One Nation in key regional seats like Hastings, Morwell, and Pakenham suggests the party can win many seats in regional and rural areas even if their state-wide primary vote falls below that of the Coalition and ALP.

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