Author: roymorgansocial

Personal approvals don’t matter, says pollster Gary Morgan

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Original article by Luke Henriques Gomes
The New Daily – Page: Online : 14-Sep-17

Pollster Gary Morgan says leadership approval ratings do not necessarily translate into electoral success. Opposition Leader Bill Shorten is performing poorly against Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in personal approval polls, despite Labor being ahead of the government in polling. Morgan, the executive chairman of Roy Morgan Research, cites examples such as Margaret Thatcher and Helen Clark of politicians who enjoyed electoral success despite low approval ratings. He says voters focus on issues important to them, rather than on political party leaders. Roy Morgan each week surveys face to face an Australian wide cross section of about 1,000 people aged 14 and over. Voting intention of electors is available to subscribers and clients.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, NICK XENOPHON TEAM, ONE NATION LIMITED, NEWSPOLL, IPSOS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ

New Zealand Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured with the support of the Greens & Maori Party as ‘Jacindamania’ pulls support from National & New Zealand First

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

The final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll before the September 2017 election shows that the Labour/Greens alliance (60 seats) is favoured to win a knife-edge election with Maori Party support, with National/NZ First/Act NZ to win 58 seats. Support for a potential Labour/Greens coalition has increased to 48.5% (up 7% from mid-August 2017), now well ahead of the incumbent National Party on 40% (down 2.5%). Labour’s support has surged on the back of new Leader Jacinda Ardern to 39.5% – up 14.4% since the 2014 Election and up 7% since mid-August, just after she became Leader. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen 2pts to 137pts in September. Roy Morgan Research CEO Gary Morgan says the narrow gap between the major parties means the final outcome of the election will be decided by the second string parties – and it is here that Labour has a decisive edge.

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MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), GREEN PARTY OF AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND, CONSERVATIVE PARTY OF NEW ZEALAND, THE MAORI PARTY, UNITED FUTURE PARTY (NEW ZEALAND), NEW ZEALAND FIRST PARTY, ACT NEW ZEALAND, INTERNET PARTY, MANA PARTY

Poverty, gap between rich & poor and Housing affordability, Housing shortage & Homelessness key issues as New Zealand votes in Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

A New Zealand Roy Morgan poll shows that 27.9% of New Zealanders believe that Economic issues 28% (up 1% since May 2017) or Housing-related issues 26% (up 3%) are the most important problems facing the nation in the lead-up to the election on 23 September. Within the group of Economic & Housing-related issues the most important issues are Poverty and the gap between rich & poor (mentioned by just under 17% of respondents), House prices & Housing affordability (mentioned by 16% of respondents), and Housing shortages & Homelessness (mentioned by 10% of respondents). Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine says Labour Party Leader Jacinda Ardern’s strong focus on dealing with issues surrounding Housing affordability and the housing shortage and homelessness appear to have struck a chord with the electorate.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Revised Ten bid in the balance

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Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 24 : 18-Sep-17

KordaMentha has declined to comment on a revised bid for the Ten Network by Lachlan Murdoch and Bruce Gordon, which would result in unsecured creditors receiving a maximum payment of $A55m. The CBS deal would give these creditors no more than $A32m in total. The administrator is believed to be waiting for a Supreme Court of New South Wales judgment before deciding whether to put the new offer to Ten’s creditors. Murdoch and Gordon have alleged that KordaMentha had not provided creditors with sufficient information about the value of their joint bid.

CORPORATES
TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, KORDA MENTHA AND COLLEAGUES PTY LTD, CBS CORPORATION, SUPREME COURT OF NEW SOUTH WALES, ILLYRIA PTY LTD, BIRKETU PTY LTD, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, 21ST CENTURY FOX INCORPORATED

Discounts on FMG’s iron ore forced higher

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Original article by Angus Grigg, Tess Ingram, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 18-Sep-17

The discount that Fortescue Metals Group receives on sales of its iron ore with 56.7 per cent iron content has widened so far in 2017-18. This discount to the benchmark price for 62 per cent iron ore averaged 23 per cent in 2016-17, compared with an historical average of 10-15 per cent. However, the discount widened to 27 per cent in the June 2017 quarter. It increased to 32 per cent in August and rose to 35 per cent in early September. Fortescue’s outgoing CEO Nev Power expects the current discount to be maintained in the near-term.

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FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON ALUMINIUM (HOLDINGS) PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, SHANGHAI STEELHOME INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY COMPANY LIMITED

Australians split down the middle on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon; as expected Australians want a peaceful diplomatic solution to North Korean stand-off

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Morgan Poll Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

A special snap SMS Morgan Poll taken on 14 September 2017 shows that Australians are evenly split on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon: 51% say it is either "Fairly unlikely" (33%) or "Very unlikely" (18%) to do so, while 49% say it is "Fairly likely" (33%) or "Very likely" (16%) to do so. Meanwhile, 81% of Australians want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution, and only 19% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working and a military one is needed. Analysing the results by voting preference shows supporters of the major parties are also split down the middle on whether North Korea will use a nuclear weapon, and large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution. Roy Morgan Research CEO Gary Morgan says the consensus across political lines also extends across both genders, all age groups and around all of Australia’s States. However, the snap SMS Morgan Poll was taken before North Korea’s latest provocation when the regime of Kim Jong-Un fired a ballistic missile nearly 4,000km eastward across the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido.

CORPORATES
MORGAN POLL, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Majority happy with mobile phone service providers particularly Amaysim, Optus & Virgin

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey has found that 77.1% of Australians aged 14+ who are mobile phone users were satisfied with their service provider over the year to July 2017. This is an improvement from 73.4% in 2014 but down marginally from 77.4% in 2016. Very little separates the satisfaction of the top five service providers, with Amaysim the leader on 81.6%, followed by Optus (79.0%), Virgin (78.4%), Telstra (76.3%) and Vodafone (76.0%). Amaysim was the biggest improver over the last 12 months, up 4.2% to 81.6%. The other two major providers to show improvement were Virgin (up 3.5%) and Optus (up 0.9%). Telstra showed a marginal decline (down 0.3%), while Vodafone was down 2.6%.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AMAYSIM AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX AYS, OPTUS MOBILE PTY LTD, VIRGIN MOBILE (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, VODAFONE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ALDIMOBILE

New car buying intentions up in August – biggest gains to Toyota, Mitsubishi, Kia, VW and Skoda

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Sep-17

A Roy Morgan Single Source survey has found that 2.457 million Australians aged 14+ intend to purchase a new car in the next four years. This is an increase of 53,000 from July and is only marginally lower than the 15-year high recorded in February 2017. The survey also shows that the number of Australians intending to purchase a new car in the next 12 months has increased by 9.2% over the last quarter, to 679,000. A major driver of increased intentions over the next 12 months is that this group has a much higher level of consumer confidence than the population average. Over the August quarter, the consumer confidence level for all Australians was 113.1, whereas those intending to purchase a new car in the next 12 months had a much higher confidence level (125.2).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Small banks aim at APRA

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 18-Sep-17

Bank of Queensland CEO Jon Sutton says caps imposed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority on investor lending make it hard for smaller banks to increase their market share. Bendigo & Adelaide Bank CEO Mike Hirst contends that APRA’s lending caps have required it to cut down on the number of loans it writes. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen claims that the lines of responsibility between the various regulators of the financial services sector have become "blurred" in recent years.

CORPORATES
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, ME BANK, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, ING BANK (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

Fairfax meets Seven; Nine talks on ice

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 18-Sep-17

Fairfax Media and Seven West Media have declined to comment on suggestions that they commenced discussions regarding a potential merger prior to the recent passage of the Federal Government’s cross-media ownership reforms. Sources have stressed that any such talks are preliminary and may not result in a deal. However, a key issue could be Seven’s long-term debt of more than $A800m. Fairfax had previously held talks with Nine Entertainment Company, and the two had been widely touted as merger candidates if media laws were relaxed.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, PACIFIC MAGAZINES PTY LTD, WEST AUSTRALIAN NEWSPAPERS HOLDINGS LIMITED, MACQUARIE MEDIA LIMITED – ASX MRN, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, DOMAIN.COM.AU, TPG CAPITAL LP, HELLMAN AND FRIEDMAN