BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Ten looks local to weather cricket loss

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Original article by Dana McCauley
The Australian – Page: 24 : 2-Jul-18

UBS forecasts that Australia’s free-to-air TV advertising market will record growth of 1.5 per cent in 2018-19. The firm says elections at federal and state level will boost the ad revenue of the Seven and Nine networks. Meanwhile, UBS figures show that the Ten Network’s share of ad revenue fell sharply during the first half of 2018. Ten intends to ramp up its local content after losing the Big Bash League broadcasting rights, with a number of new shows set to debut in the second half.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, CBS CORPORATION, BIG BASH LEAGUE, CRICKET AUSTRALIA

More pain to come for Telstra investors

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 22-Jun-18

Telstra shares fell to a seven-year low on 21 June, in response to its restructuring proposal and 2018-19 earnings guidance that was below market expectations. Citigroup is bearish about the EBITDA and earnings outlook for Telstra’s mobile division over the next four years, and the firm has downgraded its earnings per share forecasts. Citigroup and CLSA also expect Telstra to reduce its dividend payout in coming years.

CORPORATES
TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, VODAFONE HUTCHISON AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Spotlight on iron ore about to shift to Rio Tinto

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 23 : 18-Jun-18

Recent announcements from BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group that they will develop new iron ore mines in the Pilbara has prompted speculation as to when Rio Tinto will make a similar announcement. Koodaideri is widely tipped to be Rio’s next iron ore mine, and the project was first discussed by the resources giant’s board in late 2013. Rio Tinto’s head of iron ore, Chris Salisbury, is scheduled to hold a series of briefings and site visits for investors over the next week, although an announcement on Koodaideri is not expected to be made until later in the year.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD

Fed hikes put squeeze on banks

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 28 : 15-Jun-18

The US Federal Reserve has signalled that two more interest rate increases are likely in 2018, following its second rate rise for the year. The new target range for the federal funds rate is between 1.75% and 2%, while the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept its cash rate at 1.5% for almost two years. The divergence in monetary policy has coincided with rising wholesale borrowing costs for Australia’s major banks, as well as a recent spike in the bank bill swap rate. Shane Oliver of AMP says local banks could potentially respond by increasing their mortgage rates on investment and interest-only loans.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, FINANCIAL STABILITY BOARD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SOCIETE GENERALE SA, BNP PARIBAS SA, GRUPO SANTANDER

Caltex tips profit rise despite downturn

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 13-Jun-18

Caltex Australia has advised that its 2018 interim net profit is expected to be within the range of $A295m to $A315m, compared with $A294m previously. Caltex has also forecast that its fuels and infrastructure division will post half-year EBIT growth of nine per cent. However, its convenience retail division’s EBIT is expected to be 17 per cent lower than previously. This has been attributed to factors such as lower fuel margins and costs associated with dismantling its franchise model.

CORPORATES
CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, SEAOIL, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, GULL PETROLEUM (NZ) LIMITED

Trust key to grab media spend: PwC

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 12-Jun-18

PricewaterhouseCoopers has forecast that consumer spending on media and internet access will rise from $A24.1bn in 2017 to $A28bn by 2022. Megan Brownlow of PwC says trust will be a major factor in how this expenditure is allocated. PwC’s Australian Entertainment & Media Outlook 2018 report concludes that traditional media companies should benefit from a series of scandals that have eroded consumers’ trust in digital media companies such as Facebook.

CORPORATES
PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, CAMBRIDGE ANALYTICA LLC

Australia’s iron ore age nears peak

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 28-May-18

Australia now accounts for about 62 per cent of all iron ore shipments to China, compared with 43 per cent in 2010. He Ming of Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Australia’s iron ore exports to China will peak at 895 million tonnes in 2020 and 2021, before holding steady at around 884 million tonnes beyond 2023. Tony Robson of Global Mining Research expects Chinese steel mills’ demand for Australian iron ore to fall in coming years, as annual steel production peaks. Factors such as increased iron ore production in Brazil are also expected to weigh on Australian producers.

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, GLOBAL MINING RESEARCH PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Aussie dollar vulnerable to further EM turmoil

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 28-May-18

The Australian dollar has shed three per cent against its US counterpart so far in 2018. Rodrigo Catril of National Australia Bank expects the currency to trade within a range of $US0.75 to $US0.77 for the rest of the year. However, he warns that sustained volatility in emerging markets is a potential risk for the Australian dollar. Catril adds that this risk should remain relatively low unless the volatility extends beyond countries such as Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLOOMBERG LP

Westfield done deal for Unibail

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Original article by Turi Condon, Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 23 : 24-May-18

Westfield Corporation’s shareholders are widely tipped to vote in favour of its acquisition by Unibail-Rodamco on 24 May. Winston Sammut of Folkestone Maxim Asset Management says factors such as the support of proxy advisers and the absence of a rival bid suggests that the $A30bn deal will be approved. He attributes the recent fall in Westfield’s share price to investors replacing the stock in their portfolios in expectation of the deal proceeding.

CORPORATES
WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CGI GLASS LEWIS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, DEXUS – ASX DXS, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT

Financial adviser exodus puts $900b of savings in flux

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Original article by Alice Uribe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 24-May-18

Research by consumer group Adviser Ratings shows that 7,000 Australian financial advisers have left the industry since 2015. An additional 14,000 are expected to do so in the next five years, primarily due to reforms that are likely to be implemented in response to the banking royal commission. The large number of advisers leaving the industry will affect around $A900m worth of clients’ funds, and Mark Hoven of Adviser Ratings says more than 25 per cent of these funds may end up not being under advice.

CORPORATES
ADVISER RATINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AZ NGA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED – ASX NWL, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION