Original article by Gary Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 11-Mar-16

The long-running Roy Morgan unemployment estimate shows real Australian unemployment (10.0 per cent) is consistently higher than reported by the ABS (6.0 per cent) – and the higher Roy Morgan unemployment estimate "makes sense" when one considers record low wages growth. The ABS figures released monthly lack credibility. ABS estimated unemployment of 6.0 per cent in January – recognised as a figure close to "full employment". The ABS also reports Australian wage growth at a record low of only 2.2 per cent in 2015. These two figures do not make sense. The economic fact is that when an economy approaches full employment, wages growth throughout the economy accelerates and this causes inflation. This is not happening in Australia, and nor is it happening in the US. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics claims US unemployment of only 4.9 per cent on the most reported measure. However, a broader definition of US unemployment also released by the BLS (called U6) shows real US unemployment of 9.7 per cent. This higher US unemployment estimate is a much closer estimate of the real level of unemployment in the US and very close to Australia’s level of real unemployment. Both businesses and governments in Australia and the US do their economic modelling based on the wrong unemployment data.

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, UNITED STATES. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS