Roy Morgan predicts Christmas sales within 0.1% – again

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Feb-19

Roy Morgan’s 2018 retail sales forecast, undertaken in conjunction with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), predicted total retail sales growth of 2.9% to $51.479 billion for the most important retailing period of the year from 9 November to Christmas Eve. This is just 0.1% higher than the 2.8% growth achieved. The accuracy for 2018 matches the accuracy of a year ago, when Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas sales forecasts were also within 0.1% of the actual retail sales for the period. There was growth across five of the six categories measured in the pre-Christmas period in 2018, with spending on Food growing the fastest, up 4% to $20.979 billion. Also growing impressively was the Clothing, Footwear & Accessories category, which grew 3.8% to $4.056 billion, while Other Retailing grew by 3.5% to $7.375 billion. All three of these categories grew at a slightly greater rate than Roy Morgan’s pre-Christmas forecasts. The Roy Morgan-ARA Christmas sales forecasts are based on data taken from the ABS Retail Trade Catalogue 8501.0. Note that online sales through Australian retail stores are included in the retail figures. Sales forecasts are determined by historical retail trade data from the ABS, Roy Morgan’s Consumer Confidence and unemployment data, and various other data relating to macro-economic conditions.


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